Crypto Daybook Americas:

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless noted otherwise)

Macroeconomic dynamics are continuing to influence the short-term volatility of bitcoin (BTC), which remains firm above the $80,000 mark, accompanied by a surge of notable news within the last day.

However, a risk-averse sentiment lingers as the gap widens between bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s market dominance has risen to 62%, nearing a year-to-date peak, whereas the ether-to-bitcoin (ETH-BTC) ratio has experienced a downturn on a four-year compound annual basis, indicating that ETH is not performing as well.

In addition, ongoing trade tensions, particularly involving former President Trump’s tariffs, are adding to the concerns weighing on market optimism. This involves not only Canada but also metal tariffs that have led to retaliatory actions from the European Union.

A noteworthy development is emerging from Canada, where newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney has initiated plans to sell U.S. dollar bonds. Although the total sale amount is not yet disclosed, it is significant to highlight that Canada holds approximately $379 billion in U.S. Treasuries, ranking as the sixth-largest holder as of the end of 2024. If this sale goes ahead, it may exert upward pressure on yields, contrarily impacting the current administration’s objectives.

The dialogue surrounding Treasury yields is crucial since nearly $9 trillion in U.S. debt is scheduled to mature or require refinancing this year alone. This scenario is one of the principal reasons the U.S. government is seeking to lower Treasury yields.

In the near term, market focus shifts to today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with bullish traders in risk assets hoping for a cooler inflation reading. The S&P 500 is hovering precariously near correction territory, showing nearly a 10% decline. Should inflation figures exceed expectations, it could result in additional downward pressure on risk assets. Stay Vigilant!

Key Watch Points

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 12, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) will publish February consumer price inflation data.
    • MoM Inflation Rate Estimated at 1.3% vs. Previous 0.16%
    • YoY Inflation Rate Estimated at 5% vs. Previous 4.56%
  • March 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will issue February consumer price inflation data.
    • MoM Core Inflation Rate Estimated at 0.3% vs. Previous 0.4%
    • YoY Core Inflation Rate Estimated at 3.2% vs. Previous 3.3%
    • MoM Inflation Rate Estimated at 0.3% vs. Previous 0.5%
    • YoY Inflation Rate Estimated at 2.9% vs. Previous 3%
  • March 12, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision followed by a press conference (livestream link) 45 minutes later.
    • Policy Interest Rate Estimated at 2.75% vs. Previous 3%
  • March 12, 12:00 p.m.: Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service will release February consumer price inflation data.
    • MoM Inflation Rate Estimated at 0.8% vs. Previous 1.2%
    • YoY Inflation Rate Estimated at 10.1% vs. Previous 9.9%
  • March 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will disclose February producer price inflation data.
    • MoM Core PPI Estimated at 0.3% vs. Previous 0.3%
    • YoY Core PPI Estimated at 3.6% vs. Previous 3.6%
    • MoM PPI Estimated at 0.3% vs. Previous 0.4%
    • YoY PPI Estimated at 3.3% vs. Previous 3.5%
• Earnings (Estimates based on data)
  • March 12 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.03
  • March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05
  • March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • March 12: Aptos (APT) will unlock 1.93% of circulating supply, valued at $58.26 million.
  • March 14: Starknet (STRK) will unlock 2.33% of circulating supply, valued at $10.67 million.
  • March 15: Sei (SEI) will unlock 1.19% of circulating supply, valued at $10.35 million.
  • March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 2.1% of circulating supply, valued at $31.53 million.
  • March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 4.66% of circulating supply, valued at $79.60 million.
  • March 21: Immutable (IMX) will unlock 1.39% of circulating supply, valued at $12.70 million.
• Token Listings
  • March 31: Binance plans to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• The recently launched BMT tokens from Bubblemaps, a tool for on-chain analysis and crypto transparency, have decreased by more than 50% since their debut on Tuesday.
• Bubblemaps employs clustering to aggregate wallet addresses into bubbles, thereby providing insights into whale activities, insider control, or unusual patterns (such as a deployer holding 76% of the supply), which aids investors in evaluating risks through visual ownership maps.
• BMT tokens grant access to a “Community Intel Desk” for scam investigations and premium analytical features while allowing participation in governance.
• Critiques about BMT revolve around a nearly 90% concentration of supply in a single wallet, a mintable contract posing inflation risks, an exclusive airdrop, and concerns around unlocked liquidity, which seems ironic for a project centered on transparency.

Derivatives Positioning

• Open interest across ETH standard and perpetual futures has climbed to 9.75 million ETH, the highest level since February 3. This figure has increased from 8.4 million ETH over the past month, reflecting traders selling into the declining market.
• Open interest in BTC perpetual and standard futures remains low, and funding rates are slightly positive. SOL, ADA, TRX, and LINK still exhibit negative perpetual funding rates.
• BTC and ETH options listed on Deribit continue to show a preference for puts until May expiry, whereas a more optimistic outlook for calls is developing for the third quarter.
• Recent overnight block flows indicated selling of higher strike BTC and ETH calls and buying of short-tenor puts.

Market Movements:

• BTC is down 0.55% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, priced at $82,577.14 (24-hour change: +0.87%)
• ETH is down 2.6% at $1,892.41 (24-hour change: -1.58%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1% at 2,556.70 (24-hour change: +0.52%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has risen by 32 bps to 3.43%
• BTC funding rate stands at 0.007% (2.54% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.31% at 103.52
• Gold is steady at $2,914.29/oz
• Silver is up 0.69% at $33.01/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 36,819.09
• Hang Seng closed down 0.76% at 23,600.31
• FTSE is up 0.43% at 8,532.17
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.19% at 5,373.08
• DJIA closed on Tuesday down 1.14% at 41,433.48
• S&P 500 closed down 0.76% at 5,572.07
• Nasdaq closed down 0.18% at 17,436.10
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.54% at 24,248.20
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.44% at 2,307.52
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate unchanged at 4.28%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures increased by 0.54% at 5,607.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose by 0.67% at 19,529.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index futures up 0.37% at 41,627.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 62.13 (-0.16%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02290 (-0.06%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 815 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $46.1
• Total Fees: 6.03 BTC / $490,764
• CME Futures Open Interest: 142,725 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 28.3 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%

Technical Analysis

• The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of fiat currencies, has fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support from the rally that occurred between late September and January.
• This breakdown signifies that a potential softer U.S. CPI release could easily push the index down to 102.31, which is the 78.6% retracement support.
• A more pronounced decline in the dollar could benefit risk assets, including BTC.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed Tuesday at $260.59 (+8.91%), currently down 0.58% at $259.09 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $191.69 (+6.95%), unchanged in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.27 (-1.09%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.32 (-0.67%), currently down 0.68% at $13.23
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.72 (+2.12%), currently down 0.26% at $7.70
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.63 (+7.74%), currently down 0.46% at $8.59
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.26 (+3.51%), currently down 0.73% at $8.20
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.08 (+4.14%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.80 (+0.18%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.50 (-0.41%), currently up 0.94% at $24.73

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$371 million
• Cumulative net flows: $35.47 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1,121 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$21.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.66 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.571 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart illustrates daily trading volume on Hyperliquid, a top decentralized exchange focused on perpetual trading.
• Despite recent market declines, volumes have remained remarkably stable, contrasting with the significant downturn experienced in other platforms such as Solana’s Raydium.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether