Analyst Darkfost suggests that Bitcoin’s recent downward trend may soon come to a close as the selling pressure from significant holders on Binance seems to be lessening.
In a post on March 12, Darkfost noted a drop in Binance’s BTC whale ratio, which reflects the proportion of the top 10 inflows compared to total inflows. A high ratio often signifies intense selling from whales, which can lead to temporary price corrections.
However, the current decline in this metric indicates that large holders are cutting back on their sell orders, which typically suggests a potential market rebound on the horizon.
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a sharp decline, falling nearly 30% from its record high in January and dropping to a four-month low of roughly $77,000 on March 11. Nevertheless, on-chain data shows that whale holdings have been increasing.
In the past month, large holders have acquired close to 65,000 BTC, suggesting that current prices are seen as attractive entry points by institutional investors.
The market has been influenced by various factors. The recent announcement regarding a planned Bitcoin reserve by the U.S. government appeared positive initially, but it soon became clear that these assets would largely stem from seized property rather than proactive purchases.
This revelation has heightened uncertainty among investors, compounded by record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic concerns such as looming tariffs. Traditional markets, particularly the NASDAQ, continue to exert a strong influence on Bitcoin’s price.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, shared his market perspective in a post on March 11. He anticipates that Bitcoin could hit a low around $70,000, a 36% decline from its all-time high, before initiating its next upward trend.
However, he contends that a genuine recovery will necessitate more than just the dynamics within the crypto market. According to Hayes, a downturn in the stock market is essential for a broader financial transition to occur.
Currently, the persistent accumulation by major investors coupled with the declining whale ratio suggests that selling pressure is diminishing. Bitcoin, trading at $83,234 at the time of writing, might be on the verge of a recovery if this trend continues.