The 2 Factors That Suggest a Quarter-End Bitcoin Price Rally

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The cryptocurrency market has shown signs of stabilization over the last two days, with bitcoin momentarily surpassing the 200-day simple moving average at $84,000 early today. The recent U.S. CPI data, which came in softer than anticipated, contributed to positive sentiment by reinforcing traders’ expectations of four interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

The recent recovery within the last 24 hours was spearheaded by the memecoin sector, followed by layer-1 and layer-2 blockchain tokens, as well as AI tokens, based on information from a data provider.

Nevertheless, lingering concerns, such as President Trump’s tariffs, fears of a U.S. recession, and the volatility in the bond market—which recently affected risky assets including BTC—continue to cast doubt on the durability of this market recovery. However, at least two elements suggest otherwise.

The first of these is the quarter-end rebalancing. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have seen declines of 6% and 4.8%, respectively, this quarter, while the 10-year Treasury note has risen by 5%. This implies that funds required to maintain a certain asset allocation are now disproportionately invested in bonds and will likely rebalance by purchasing equities and selling bonds as the quarter draws to a close.

This rebalancing could lead to increases in bond yields and stock prices, which might have positive implications for bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market, especially considering the robust correlation between BTC and technology stocks.

The other important factor is the yen, which has faced pressure since a recent report highlighted the potential for renewed stability in the cryptocurrency market amid stretched bullish positioning in the Japanese currency. As a safe-haven asset, the yen might continue under pressure as the anticipated quarter-end rebalancing elevates U.S. bond yields. In essence, risk aversion, driven by yen strength and the unwinding of yen carry trades, may be alleviating for now.

Moreover, a favorable net global liquidity scenario could stimulate risk-taking behavior.

“Net global liquidity, largely fueled by China and the U.S., is on the rise,” remarked an SEC-registered investment adviser in a chat group. “This increase may mitigate some adverse impacts from the yen trade’s unwinding. Additionally, as the U.S. begins to manage its own interest rates and inflation more effectively—something we’ve already seen trend downwards—this will ease pressure on bonds from other central banks and slow the rate increases on yen borrowing.”

Traders should remain cautious of potential volatility, as data shows significant negative dealer gamma in the BTC options market between the $81,000 and $87,000 range. Dealers are likely to trade in line with market movements to keep their overall exposure neutral, which could lead to increased price fluctuations.

The U.S. is set to release the February producer price index (PPI) report and the weekly jobless claims later today. A hotter-than-expected PPI could trigger downside volatility in risk assets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February producer price inflation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.6%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
    • PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5%
  • March 14, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases January producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Prev. 1.48%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 9.42%
  • March 16, 10:00 p.m.: The National Bureau of Statistics of China releases February employment data.
    • Unemployment Rate Prev. 5.1%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05
  • March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings, C$0.38

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • March 14: Starknet to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $11.16 million.
  • March 15: Sei to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.65 million.
  • March 16: Arbitrum to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $32.33 million.
  • March 18: Fasttoken to unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.80 million.
  • March 21: Immutable to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $13.19 million.
  • March 23: Metars Genesis to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $97.6 million.
  • March 23: Mantra to unlock 0.51% of its circulating supply worth $32.4 million.
• Token Listings
  • March 13: Nano to be listed on OKX.
  • March 18: Paws to be listed on Bybit.
  • March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• A recent report highlighted the enormous cost of missing out on potential airdrops for U.S. recipients, as significant numbers have been excluded entirely.
• As many as 5.2 million American crypto users have been shut out from airdrops, missing out on an estimated token value ranging from $3.49 billion to $5.02 billion.
• This only scratches the surface: 22%–24% of active crypto wallets belong to Americans, who have been systematically excluded. The U.S. government has also seen losses, with $418 million to $1.1 billion in federal tax revenue and an additional $107 million to $284 million in state taxes.
• Regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. compelled many crypto projects to be conservative. Numerous projects outright blocked U.S. participants, relocated their operations abroad, or altered their airdrop designs to avoid potential legal action.
• This has resulted in a stark divide: while crypto adoption surged globally, the U.S. has lagged. Many projects preferred to sidestep ambiguous regulations, effectively geo-blocking American users from claiming tokens.
• However, it seems a shift might be underway. The regulatory landscape in the U.S. is changing, with indications that lawmakers may ease restrictions on crypto, as highlighted in the report.

Derivatives Positioning

• BNB, ETH, XLM, DOT, and OM are currently the only top-25 coins by market cap that have shown positive cumulative volume deltas in perpetual futures over the past 24 hours, indicating net buying pressure.
• Positioning in CME’s bitcoin futures remains thin, with open interest at 146K BTC, only slightly higher than the recent multi-month low of 140.84 BTC. The same trend applies to CME’s ETH futures.
• The basis for BTC’s CME futures is trapped between 5% and 10% annualized, while ETH’s has rebounded to nearly 7% from a low of 4%.
• BTC and ETH puts are being traded at higher rates compared to calls nearing May’s expiry on Deribit, showcasing ongoing apprehension towards downside risks.
• Recent block flows have included long BTC straddles, indicative of a bullish volatility play, alongside outright purchases of out-of-the-money puts.

Market Movements:

• BTC is steady since Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET at $83,335.37 (24hrs: +0.98%)
• ETH has slid by 0.29% to $1,896.33 (24hrs: -0.4%)
• CoinDesk 20 index has risen by 0.55% to 2,596.89 (24hrs: +1.65%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has decreased by 27 basis points to 3.16%
• BTC funding rate on Binance is currently at 0.0038% (4.18% annualized)

• DXY remains at 103.66
• Gold is up 0.15% to $2,943.76 per ounce
• Silver has dropped 0.48% to $33.11 per ounce
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 36,790.03
• Hang Seng declined by 0.58% to 23,462.65
• FTSE is up 0.38% to 8,573.66
• Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.25% to 5,372.83
• DJIA closed down 0.2% at 41,350.93 on Wednesday
• S&P 500 rose by 0.49% to 5,599.30
• Nasdaq went up by 1.22% to 17,648.45
• S&P/TSX Composite Index increased by 0.72% to 24,423.34
• S&P 40 Latin America gained 0.81% to 2,326.29
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.33%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are trading at 5,604.25, unchanged
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures remain at 19,602.00, unchanged
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures stay at 41,411.00, unchanged

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.97 (-0.21%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02272 (-0.39%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 832 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $46.1
• Total Fees: 5.19 BTC / $428.778
• CME Futures Open Interest: 143,790 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 28.3 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%

Technical Analysis

• The SOL/ETH ratio remains above the bull market trendline, even as the MACD, a momentum indicator, has been showing negative readings for the fourth consecutive week.
• This indicates underlying strength in the market and suggests that SOL may continue to outperform ether.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $262.55 (+0.75%), down 0.63% to $260.89 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $191.73 (+0.02%), down 0.18% to $191.39
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.50 (+1.33%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.11 (-1.58%), up 1.07% to $13.25
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.85 (+1.68%), down 0.25% to $7.83
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.95 (+3.71%), down 1.12% to $8.85
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.10 (-1.94%), down 0.62% to $8.05
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.29 (+1.39%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.60 (+2.44%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.43 (+11.96%), down 5.18% to $26.01

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $13.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $35.49 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1,117 million.

Spot ETH ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$10.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.70 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.555 million.

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The VIX index, which is often recognized as Wall Street’s fear gauge, has declined from its December high, signaling a potential resumption of risk-appetite in equities.
• This could be advantageous for cryptocurrencies as well.

While You Were Sleeping

• Poland’s President Urges U.S. to Move Nuclear Warheads to Polish Territory: Andrzej Duda argued that NATO’s nuclear deterrent should shift eastward in response to the alliance’s growth and Russia’s deployment of nuclear arms in Belarus.
• Worst of U.S. Equity Correction Is Likely Over, JPMorgan Analysts Say: JPMorgan strategists noted that U.S. credit markets suggest a lower recession risk compared to equities, indicating that recent stock price drops may stem from hedge funds unwinding positions instead of economic fundamentals.
• Consumer Angst Affects All Income Levels: American consumers are tightening their spending as diminished savings and slower wage growth limit their finances, while concerns about tariffs elevate inflation expectations and recession fears.
• BOJ Expected to Keep Rates Steady This Month, Hike to 0.75% in Q3: A recent survey revealed that economists largely believe Trump’s tariffs will negatively impact Japan’s economy, with most anticipating the Bank of Japan will raise rates in the third quarter.
• Crypto Scam: Request Made for International Arrest of Hayden Davis: An Argentine lawyer has urged a federal prosecutor to seek an international arrest warrant for Hayden Davis, targeting his extradition over involvement in a memecoin scandal.
• XRP Short Bias Persists Amid Ripple Legal Optimism, DOGE Approaching Death Cross as BTC Dominance Reaches Four-Year High: XRP’s price may have rebounded, but traders continue to bet against it in derivative markets, indicating skepticism regarding its rise. Numerous altcoins reflect similar bearish sentiment.

In the Ether