Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks 12-year support as gold price hits a record $3K

On March 14, Bitcoin (BTC) broke through a long-standing support trendline against gold (XAU) that had held for over 12 years.

A noted analyst suggests that if Bitcoin remains beneath the gold trendline for a week or longer, it may indicate the end of its 12-year bull market.

Could this signal the end of Bitcoin’s bullish phase? Let’s delve deeper into the relationship between BTC and gold.

Gold Reaches Record High as Bitcoin’s Uptrend Slows

The breakdown of the BTC/XAU ratio coincided with spot gold prices hitting a new record high, surpassing $3,000 per ounce on March 14, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 12.80%.

In contrast, Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” has seen a decline of 11% in 2025 thus far.

The differing performance can be attributed to the contrasting capital flows into ETFs in the US that track Bitcoin and gold.

For instance, as of March 14, gold ETFs based in the US had attracted more than $6.48 billion year-to-date, with global gold ETFs receiving a total of $23.18 billion in inflows.

On the other hand, US Bitcoin ETFs experienced nearly $1.46 billion in outflows year-to-date, according to on-chain data.

This divergence is largely driven by an increase in macroeconomic uncertainty and a prevailing risk-off sentiment, intensified by aggressive trade policies.

New tariffs imposed on countries like China, Mexico, and Canada have escalated concerns about a potential global economic slowdown, prompting investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.

Simultaneously, central banks in the US, China, and the UK have increased their gold purchases, which further propels gold prices upward.

Conversely, Bitcoin seems to be tracking the broader risk-on sentiment of the market. As of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index stood at 0.76.

Has Bitcoin’s Price Peaked?

The recent breakdown of Bitcoin against gold aligns with historical trends, specifically the fractal observed from March 2021 to March 2022, which preceded the last bear phase.

During that period, the BTC/XAU ratio displayed a bearish divergence, defined by rising prices alongside a declining relative strength index (RSI), hinting at waning upward momentum.

Consequently, the ratio initially retreated towards its support level at the 50-period, two-week exponential moving average (EMA) before ultimately experiencing a 60% decline.

This breakdown period coincided with a 68% correction of Bitcoin against the US dollar.

The BTC/XAU ratio has once again undergone a two-phase retest of the EMA, reminiscent of the 2021-2022 fractal.

With the RSI indicating a bearish divergence, momentum seems to be diminishing, enhancing the likelihood of further declines, especially if the ratio decisively falls below the 50-2W EMA support (around 26 XAU).

This trend could signal Bitcoin’s heightened sensitivity to declines in dollar value, with the 50-2W EMA below $65,000 potentially serving as the next support target.

This represents a drop of around 40% from Bitcoin’s peak of approximately $110,000 reached in January.

Nonetheless, analysts from Nansen view any decline as a “correction within a bull market,” suggesting the potential for a bullish resurgence if the 50-2W EMA remains as support. However, a substantial breach below this level could lead Bitcoin into a bear market scenario.

If this Bitcoin-gold fractal holds true, Bitcoin’s downside target for 2025 could fall towards the 200-period two-week EMA (the blue wave), possibly reaching as low as $34,850.

This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All forms of investment involve risks, and individuals should perform their own research prior to making any financial decisions.