- Bitcoin kicked off Friday’s trading session at $83,000, marking an 8% increase from the low of $76,000 recorded earlier in the week.
- Escalating trade war rhetoric between the US and Canada has overshadowed crypto investors’ responses to decreasing inflation levels.
- With market volumes falling for the third week in a row, BTC encounters significant downside risks.
- Market bettors see a 99% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate pause in March, while the chances of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are approaching 75%.
This week, Bitcoin prices have remained confined within a narrow 8% range, oscillating between $76,000 and $84,472. With contradictory market influences hindering persistent directional movements, the following outlines the main elements that affected BTC prices this week and highlights key metrics to monitor in the upcoming weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) price holds steady above $80,000 as trade tensions impact retail interest
This week has seen substantial volatility surrounding Bitcoin (BTC). The mixed market signals have made it difficult for traders to establish a clear trending direction in the crypto sphere.
Bitcoin price action | BTCUSD Weekly Chart
The latest chart indicates BTC trading above $83,300 on Friday. In relative terms, Bitcoin has gained 3% this week, up from an opening price of around $80,700 on Sunday.
This represents a notable recovery compared to the previous week, during which the announcement of trade tariffs by US President Donald Trump on Canada and Mexico resulted in an 8% sell-off, leading to over $900 million in liquidations.
Additionally, Bitcoin prices dipped below the $80,000 support level for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday.
Should Bitcoin drop below this level in the upcoming week, it might struggle with support, as recent retests could have caused traders to adjust their stop losses or liquidate long positions to mitigate losses from a potential retest.
Major events influencing BTC price movements this week:
Trade war rhetoric diminishes positive CPI and PPI effects
This week, the narrative surrounding the trade war escalated, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledging retaliatory actions.
As the week began, global markets were fraught with tension due to inflation concerns following the initial US Non-farm Payrolls data released last Friday.
However, these anxieties subsided slightly when the US CPI and PPI data indicated lower inflation metrics this week.
US CPI data, March 2025 | Source: TradingEconomics
Historically, Bitcoin demand increases when markets anticipate less aggressive Fed decisions, but current macroeconomic pressures from the trade war are dampening risk appetite, particularly among retail traders.
Bitcoin ETFs experience $13 million influx this week, but selling trend persists
This Thursday, Bitcoin ETFs witnessed $143 million in outflows, following an inflow of $13 million on Wednesday, marking the first positive flows since March began.
Overall, investors withdrew an additional $830 million this week, bringing total outflows for March to $1.7 billion.
Bitcoin ETF Flows | March 2025 | Source: SosoValue
The ongoing sell-offs of ETFs continue to contribute to short-term volatility in Bitcoin prices, as uncertainty surrounding the trade war and Trump’s proposed crypto strategic reserve unsettles investors.
Latest Bitcoin news:
Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds introduces legislation to safeguard Trump’s Bitcoin reserve policy
Byron Donalds, a candidate for governor in Florida, is preparing to propose a bill to enshrine Donald Trump’s executive order that established a strategic Bitcoin reserve, according to reports on Friday.
The legislation aims to protect Trump’s policy from future reversals by subsequent administrations, which permits the US Treasury to maintain 200,000 Bitcoin and forbids the sale of this reserve. Donalds has framed this effort as a defense against what he perceives as a “war on crypto” by Democrats.
However, the bill faces significant challenges, requiring a supermajority of 60 votes in the Senate and a majority in the House of Representatives to move forward.
Texas introduces a $250 million Bitcoin reserve bill
Lawmakers in Texas have proposed HB 4258, legislation aimed at allocating $250 million from the state’s economic stabilization fund for investment in Bitcoin and other digital assets.
This proposal follows SB 778, which has garnered bipartisan support in the Texas Senate. If passed, HB 4258 is set to take effect in 2025, allowing municipalities and counties to invest as much as $10 million in digital assets.
Looking forward: Geopolitical risks and potential Fed rate pause could fuel BTC price growth next week
The burden of various bearish macroeconomic factors suggests that Bitcoin price remains at substantial downside risk, despite the 3% gain this week.
On a brighter note, crypto traders on prediction market platforms are anticipating a Fed rate pause in the coming week, while others are looking forward to a possible easing of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Bettors project a 99% probability of a Fed rate halt in March, with chances of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire nearing 80%.
Odds on US Fed decision in March
If these predictions hold true, an improved risk appetite could drive renewed investments into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, supporting further upward movement in the coming week.
Bitcoin price forecast for the upcoming week: Will it reverse to $75K or rebound to $90K?
Bitcoin is currently valued at $84,833.67 following a 5% increase over the week.
However, with BTC still not having recovered from last week’s 8% losses, technical indicators suggest that bullish sentiment does not dominate the market entirely.
First, the Parabolic SAR dots remain positioned above the current BTC price, signaling bearish momentum.
Furthermore, the Bollinger Bands depict tightening volatility, indicating resistance at $110,676 and support near $76,505.
Bitcoin Price Forecast | BTCUSD Weekly Chart
If delays in Fed rate hikes and decreased geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia unfold, Bitcoin needs to surpass the mid-Bollinger Band at $93,591 to indicate a potential return to bullish activity.
On the other hand, a bearish breakdown could see Bitcoin testing the lower Bollinger Band at $76,505.
Rising sell volume, as observed in recent weeks, raises the risk of a deeper market correction. Should this occur, a close below $75,000 might intensify selling pressure, which could lead to a potential retest of $68K or lower.