By James Van Straten (All times ET unless otherwise specified)
The recent disruptions in the market have elevated gold’s status as the definitive “store of value,” while “digital gold” faces challenges, at least for the time being.
Gold futures for April delivery have climbed past $3,000 an ounce for the very first time, marking a remarkable achievement for this precious metal. The spot price of gold is stabilizing just under $3,000 per ounce, reflecting a 15% increase year-to-date, whereas its digital equivalent, bitcoin (BTC), is encountering difficulties—down 12% this year and lingering around $80,000.
This contrast highlights gold’s position as the prime safe-haven asset in today’s economic landscape.
Since mid-February, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded only three days of inflows, leading to a decline in total net inflows from $40 billion to roughly $35 billion, according to a proficient ETF analyst.
In the meantime, the S&P 500 has entered a correction phase, dropping over 10% as it struggles to regain its 200-day moving average, amid rising geopolitical tensions. Additional tariffs enforced by the former President and stalled ceasefire talks between President Putin and Ukraine have intensified global uncertainties.
The Head of Research at a financial firm credits the record highs in gold and the downturn in U.S. equities to increasing short- and medium-term inflation expectations, combined with a dip in consumer confidence.
“The recent surge in gold, reaching unprecedented levels, likely mirrors growing inflation expectations and a broader shift towards safety,” he explains. “In fact, both short- and medium-term inflation expectations in consumer surveys have surged to multi-decade highs, as U.S. consumers express rising anxiety over inflation, influenced by new tariff measures.”
He adds, “Simultaneously, U.S. stocks are facing sell-offs due to growing economic uncertainty tied to these trade policies, alongside increasing recession fears due to a slowdown in the labor market. Both these elements have significantly supported the price of gold.”
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- Macro
- March 14, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) is releasing producer price inflation data for January.
- PPI MoM Prev. 1.48%
- PPI YoY Prev. 9.42%
- March 14, 10:00 a.m.: The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for March is estimated at 63.1 versus the previous 64.7.
- March 14, 3:00 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census will publish February inflation data.
- Inflation Rate MoM Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.2%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 66.8 vs. Prev. 84.5%
- March 16, 10:00 p.m.: The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release February employment figures.
- Unemployment Rate Prev. 5.1%
- March 14, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) is releasing producer price inflation data for January.
- Earnings (Estimates based on data)
- March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05
- March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings, C$0.38
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- ApeCoin DAO is deliberating the establishment of an APE base in Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region, China, and also considering the creation of ApeSites, aimed at providing the BAYC community with an “easy-to-use tool to create personalized websites.”
- Aave DAO is discussing launching Horizon, a compliant version of the Aave Protocol that will allow institutions to “access permissionless stablecoin liquidity while aligning with issuer requirements.”
- Balancer DAO is in talks about the deployment of Balancer V3 on OP Mainnet.
- March 14: CoW DAO’s vote on the establishment of a 4-entity legal structure for the organization concludes.
- March 14, 10 a.m.: Representatives from Lombard, Etherfi, Coinbase and Curve will engage in an X Spaces session.
- Unlocks
- March 14: Starknet (STRK) will unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply valued at $11.15 million.
- March 15: Sei (SEI) will unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.06 million.
- March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply valued at $32.29 million.
- March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.80 million.
- March 21: Immutable (IMX) will unlock 1.39% of circulating supply valued at $12.91 million.
- March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) will unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $102.6 million.
- March 23: Mantra (OM) will unlock 0.51% of its circulating supply worth $31.2 million.
- Token Listings
- March 18: Paws (PAWS) will be listed on Bybit.
- March 31: Binance will delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- On a generally quiet day for altcoins, the native token of HyperLiquid has surged by 9.5% in the past 24 hours. This rise comes as the decentralized exchange reaches $1 trillion in cumulative volume this month, with $4.8 billion in derivatives traded just yesterday.
- In contrast, other DeFi tokens like AAVE, LIDO, and PYTH have all seen declines between 19% and 21% over the last week after failing to bounce back from a market-wide downturn over the weekend.
- One trader realized a profit of $108k after purchasing the Base memecoin doginme on Thursday, only for Coinbase to list the token on Friday, triggering a 150% rally.
Derivatives Positioning
- This morning, Bitcoin’s price rebounded to $82,895 from below $80,000, marking a cluster of short liquidations worth $52.1 million, as reported by CoinGlass. The next major liquidation level is $79,760, with liquidations holding a worth of $41.9 million.
- Among assets with over $100 million in open interest, Chainlink recorded the highest one-day percentage gain, increasing by 35.8% to $409.5 million. PNUT, Near Protocol, Stellar, and Trump followed in the top five, recording open interest increases of 19.7%, 15.8%, 14.8%, and 11.8%, respectively, for the day. Conversely, Layer-1 Network Sei (SEI) saw the steepest decline, dropping 17.2% to $101 million in open interest.
- In the Bitcoin options market on Deribit, call options with a $100,000 strike price exhibit the highest open interest, amounting to $1.5 billion, followed closely by $1.35 billion at the $120,000 strike. However, the Put-to-Call ratio, currently at 0.52, shows significant interest in puts, with the largest put contracts holding $800 million and $700 million in open interest at strike prices of $80,000 and $75,000, respectively.
Market Movements:
- BTC is up 2.93% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $82,739.17 (24hrs: -0.57%)
- ETH is up 2.38% at $1,890.23 (24hrs: -0.55%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.36% at 2,592.81 (24hrs: -0.14%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 17 basis points at 2.99%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0025% (2.79% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 103.88
- Gold has risen 0.71% to $3,000.95 per ounce
- Silver is up 0.83% at $33.97 per ounce
- Nikkei 225 closed +0.72% at 37,053.10
- Hang Seng closed +2.12% at 23,959.98
- FTSE is up 0.49% at 8,584.53
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.69% at 5,365.00
- DJIA closed on Thursday at -1.3% at 40,813.57
- S&P 500 closed at -1.39% at 5,521.52
- Nasdaq closed at -1.96% at 17,303.01
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at -0.9% at 24,203.23
- S&P 40 Latin America closed at +0.73% at 2,343.21
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 2 basis points at 4.3%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.67% at 5,564.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.9% at 19,421.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.42% at 41,036.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 61.82 (0.26%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02288 (-0.48%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 825 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.3
- Total Fees: 5.55 BTC / $456,716
- CME Futures Open Interest: 144,785 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 27.7 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.86%
Technical Analysis
- Bitcoin has bounced back from its weekly 50-day EMA, a historically significant support level during previous uptrends. In former cycles, this contact point often led to a consolidation period lasting 6 to 9 weeks before momentum resumed.
- For bullish traders, maintaining a weekly close above the 50-day EMA is critical. Prolonged price activity below this marker could indicate deeper vulnerabilities. Additionally, reclaiming the yearly opening price—aligned with previous range bottoms—would reinforce bullish sentiment.
- In the absence of this reclaim, any short-term recoveries may face risks of devolving into bearish retests, solidifying the breakdown in market structure on the weekly chart.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $263.26 (+0.27%), up 3.34% at $272.04 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $177.49 (-7.43%), up 2.89% at $182.62
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.62 (-5.03%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.16 (-7.25%), up 3.37% at $12.57
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.31 (-6.88%), up 2.74% at $7.51
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.66 (-3.24%), down 2.89% at $8.91
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.69 (-5.06%), up 3.25% at $7.94
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.57 (-4.71%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.62 (-2.92%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.08 (-4.92%), down 3.6% at $25.14
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flow: -$135.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $35.35 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1,115 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$73.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.58 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.545 million.
Source:
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- With gold hitting a new high of $3,000, the gold/BTC ratio has reached 0.037, the highest level since the U.S. elections on November 5th.
While You Were Sleeping
- Russia Turns to Cryptocurrencies for Oil Payments, Sources Indicate: Some Russian oil companies are reportedly using cryptocurrencies to navigate sanctions, facilitating the conversion of yuan and rupees from China and India into rubles.
- Bank of America Assures that the U.S. Stocks Decline is a Correction, Not the Onset of a Bear Market: Strategist Michael Hartnett suggests buying the S&P 500 if it approaches 5,300, assuming investor cash reserves grow above 4%, bond risk premiums increase, and stock sell-offs escalate.
- Trump-Backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) Concludes $590 Million Token Sale: Despite initial reports of tepid demand, the Trump-associated crypto endeavor raised $590 million in a token sale limited to accredited investors, bolstered by Justin Sun’s investment.
- AI Outpaces Crypto in VC Funding for Q1’25, But Does This Competition Matter? AI investments this quarter are nearing $20 billion, led by Databricks’ $15.3 billion funding, while the biggest crypto deal so far is Binance securing $2 billion in investment.
- A New Boost for Europe’s Struggling Economies: the Military: The European Commission’s €800 billion defense initiative could drive technological advancements, promote job creation, and enhance industrial capacity in sectors such as robotics and autonomous systems.
- UK Economy Surprised by 0.1% Contraction in January: The British pound dipped 0.2% against the dollar after weak GDP figures were released. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to propose spending cuts in the upcoming March 26 Spring Statement.