A recent analysis from 10x Research indicates that now may not be the right time to jump in during a downturn, forecasting that Bitcoin could soon reach approximately $73,000. According to Markus Thielen, CEO and lead analyst at 10x Research, the next bull market is likely to require a fresh narrative.
The report attributes a significant portion of the recent decline in the crypto market to the impact of Trump’s policies and the fall of memecoins:
“A large number of retail investors find themselves with portfolios filled with memecoins, most of which are gradually heading towards zero, with TRUMP leading the decline under the pressure of speculation, much like the broader market under the so-called crypto president.”
Memecoin Bubble
The analysis, published on March 11, 2025, outlines the burst of yet another speculative bubble. The earlier one in 2021 centered around NFTs and DeFi; now, it’s the memecoin bubble that has popped. Ethereum’s role in the memecoin arena has diminished, while coins based on Solana and Pump.Fun are facing a considerable downturn.
The collapse of the memecoin market has affected other players in the crypto space as well. One of the oldest and most recognizable memecoins, Dogecoin, witnessed a 33% price drop in February. The bleeding within the memecoin market has also undermined Bitcoin’s position. The report notes, “This structural decline signals a weakening foundation, suggesting that now is a time for caution — not complacency. Bitcoin (BTC) is steadily on its way to $73,000. If historical patterns hold, the next significant upward movement will necessitate a new narrative.”
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s decline coincides with the anticipated acceptance of crypto by the White House, all while gold prices surge amid overwhelmingly bullish crypto news.
Market to Continue Declining
On March 12, 2025, Thielen appeared on a Wolf of All Streets YouTube stream to discuss his findings with host Scott Melker. Despite the crypto market having already endured a severe slump, particularly in the memecoins sector, Thielen predicts that prices will continue to fall.
Crypto ETFs are still being sold off consistently. Meanwhile, Trump’s threats against Canada regarding increased auto import tariffs set to take effect on April 2 create confusion and chaos among traders. These factors lead to high expectations for April while leaving traders feeling uncertain in the present. Additionally, Thielen pointed out that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement new rate cuts before summer, extending this period of uncertainty even further.
This ongoing situation suggests that Bitcoin’s prices will continue to decline. When asked what price point would indicate a genuine dip, Thielen mentioned he would consider buying BTC at around $73,000.
News Not Catalyzing Bitcoin
During the YouTube stream, Melker remarked that the price of Bitcoin hasn’t shown any upward movement despite the influx of positive news. He referred to the recent reintroduction of a bill promoting the U.S. buying a million bitcoins over five years, which has been presented in Congress. Melker noted that back in the day, such developments would have likely caused Bitcoin prices to soar. However, the current market seems to be reacting indifferently.
Alongside the Lummis bill, Melker highlighted the SEC dismissing several cases against crypto firms and a general easing of crypto regulations as favorable news that hasn’t impacted market sentiment. This apparent “news fatigue” reflects a broader bearish market trend.
In summary, the post-inauguration trajectory for Bitcoin has been far from bullish, contradicting what the headlines might suggest. Melker shared a graph illustrating that after Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin fell by 25%, while Ether dropped by 46%. Other assets were similarly affected, with only gold (up by 7%) and European stocks (up by 10%) emerging as exceptions. This reality starkly contrasts the prevailing narrative in crypto news.
Thielen suggested that any hopes of a Bitcoin reserve may be disappointing for crypto enthusiasts since Lummis first mentioned the strategic reserve last year, and to date, the U.S. has yet to acquire any bitcoins. He referred to a recent executive order regarding the Bitcoin reserve as akin to “renaming the confiscated bitcoins.” According to Thielen, the market requires “evidence” of progress following Lummis’s bill announcement months ago. This lack of concrete action has stifled market stimulation.
Thielen also commented that the enthusiastic response to reports indicating that February’s CPI was at 2.8%, slightly lower than the anticipated 2.9%, is overly optimistic since a CPI above 2.0% remains rather high.
In conclusion, Thielen is confident that Bitcoin will rebound over time, but as highlighted in the report, that recovery hinges on the emergence of a new, compelling narrative.