Recently inaugurated Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who secured a landslide victory in the Liberal Party leadership contest to take over from Justin Trudeau, has significantly improved his prospects of winning the upcoming federal election, as indicated by Polymarket bettors.
Carney’s probability of winning the next Canadian election has risen to 49%, up from just 26% a month earlier. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s chances have declined to 51% from 72% in February.
The next federal election in Canada is set for October 20, 2025. However, within Canada’s Westminster system, if the opposition Conservatives and NDP join forces to vote against the minority Liberal government on a confidence motion following the resumption of Parliament on March 24—after being prorogued on January 6 at Trudeau’s request as he outlined his resignation plans pending a new Liberal leader—the government could collapse, leading to an election.
Carney’s rise in betting markets against Poilievre—despite the typical lag between prediction markets and actual polls—mirrors the current polling landscape.
The Conservatives are now just one percentage point ahead of the Liberals, according to a recent poll, down from a previous 16-point lead just a month ago.
This notable shift is attributed by experts to trade tensions with the U.S., as polls indicate that Canadians favor Carney’s business acumen and background in central banking over his opponent’s stance.
This marks a stark contrast to last year’s U.S. elections, where prediction markets consistently showed Donald Trump leading his Democratic adversaries, with the outcome surprising only those relying on mainstream media for information.
Is Crypto a Factor in the Canadian Campaign?
Crypto does not appear to play a significant role in this potential Canadian election. Although Poilievre holds a Canadian-issued Bitcoin ETF and has previously expressed support for blockchain and crypto, the focus of the campaign discourse seems to revolve around trade issues.
Carney, who has previously made mixed or skeptical remarks about crypto as the Governor of the Bank of England, has yet to address the matter in his new capacity as Liberal leader.