The chief crypto researcher isn’t dismissing the possibility of Bitcoin mirroring its 2024 price behavior, which involved a significant consolidation phase following its peak early in the year.
“Quite possible,” Thielen remarked when asked about the chances of Bitcoin (BTC) undergoing a similar market pattern as in 2024, when it achieved an all-time high of $73,679 in March before transitioning into a range-bound phase, fluctuating around $20,000 until Donald Trump’s presidential election in November.
Current Bitcoin chart indicates “market uncertainty”
Thielen expressed this view even two months ago, around the time Bitcoin reached its latest all-time high of $109,000 on Trump’s inauguration day.
In his recent market analysis on March 15, Thielen noted that Bitcoin’s current chart resembles a “High and Tight Flag.” While this pattern typically suggests a bullish trend continuation, it also shows signs of weakness.
Bitcoin’s price chart is forming a High, Tight Flag Pattern.
“The presence of two flags rather than a single, definitive formation detracts from the strength of this setup,” Thielen pointed out.
“Consequently, the current pattern suggests more of a market indecision instead of a clear bullish consolidation,” he added.
Additionally, he highlighted that the spot Bitcoin ETF market shows no indication of a “buy-the-dip” mentality.
“Limited motivation” to capitalize on Bitcoin’s recent price drop
“This aligns with our perspective that most ETF activity has stemmed from arbitrage-focused hedge funds. Given the persistently low funding rates, there’s minimal motivation or readiness to allocate further capital even with the recent price dip,” Thielen explained.
Since the start of March, when Bitcoin dipped below $90,000, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced total outflows of approximately $1.66 billion, according to available data.
As of the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading at $84,290, showing a 23% decrease from its $109,000 all-time high achieved in January.
Bitcoin has declined 12.86% over the past month.
Thielen remains uncertain about the potential resumption of Bitcoin’s upward trend in the near term. “Thus, it might be wise to close short positions at this point, although there is currently scant evidence to suggest a robust price recovery,” he stated.
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Since Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on February 28 — a scenario not witnessed since November — amid escalating macroeconomic concerns related to Trump’s proposed tariffs, various crypto analysts have anticipated further declines for the asset.
On March 10, BitMEX co-founder and executive Arthur Hayes predicted that “it appears Bitcoin will retest $78,000.” He added, “If it fails, $75,000 is next in line.”
Meanwhile, Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at a digital asset investment firm, suggested on March 11 that the low $70,000 range could provide a foundation for a more stable recovery.
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