- The price of XRP climbed back above $2.42 on Friday, achieving a 28% increase from its weekly low of $1.90.
- Analysts forecast that an XRP ETF could draw in $5 billion in inflows, similar to the effect seen with Bitcoin’s ETF, potentially igniting a rally.
- For XRP to reach $3.40, it must overcome the $2.99 resistance, which would push its market cap towards the $200 billion mark.
On Friday, XRP’s price rose above $2.42, representing a 28% recovery from its weekly low of $1.90. This uptick was driven by the commencement of settlement discussions between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple, along with speculation about BlackRock launching altcoin derivative products.
How high can XRP soar if altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) receive approval this year?
XRP Surpasses $2.40 on SEC Commodity Classification Reports
XRP experienced a 5% rebound, regaining the $2.30 support level amid news that the SEC might categorize it as a commodity in the ongoing settlement discussions with Ripple Labs. This potential regulatory breakthrough could clear up legal uncertainties and promote greater institutional involvement.
Recent market insights indicate that SEC officials are deliberating whether XRP should be regulated similarly to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are classified as commodities. Should XRP secure this classification, the likelihood of an XRP ETF approval could significantly increase.
Ripple (XRP) Price Action, March 14
Market analysts believe that an official SEC announcement confirming XRP’s status as a commodity could ignite a price surge. Past trends reveal that similar speculation propelled XRP from $0.90 to $3.10 within less than two months. This history suggests that XRP might aim for a retest of the $3 threshold if altcoin ETFs gain approval.
Will BlackRock Launch XRP ETFs?
Amid ongoing speculation regarding ETF approvals, new discussions have surfaced suggesting that BlackRock might roll out ETFs for XRP and Solana. Nate Geraci, Co-Founder of The ETF Institute, has stoked this speculation with his bold forecast:
“I’m making a formal prediction… BlackRock will file for both Solana & XRP ETFs. Solana could happen any day now.
Think XRP post SEC lawsuit. BlackRock leads by assets in both Bitcoin & Ether ETFs… I can’t imagine them letting competitors come in and launch ETFs on two of the top five non-stablecoin crypto assets without pushing back. Additionally, I anticipate BlackRock will pursue crypto index ETFs as well.”
– Nate Geraci, March 15, 2025
As of now, BlackRock holds over 567,000 Bitcoin valued at approximately $47.8 billion—outstripping MicroStrategy’s holdings of 499,096 BTC, achieved within just 15 months since their investment began.
The prospects of BlackRock introducing altcoin ETFs enhance XRP’s attractiveness to strategic investors looking to enter the market early, before potential institutional inflows.
When Could the SEC Approve an XRP ETF?
The timeline for an XRP ETF approval hinges on ongoing regulatory proceedings. The SEC is currently reviewing several crypto ETF applications, including those for Ethereum and XRP, as institutional interest in diversified digital assets continues to grow.
Industry experts predict that an XRP ETF might gain approval by late Q3 or early Q4 of 2025, depending on the outcome of Ripple’s legal conflicts.
If Ripple successfully reaches a settlement and XRP gains commodity designation, the pathway to ETF approval would become much clearer.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 spurred significant institutional interest, elevating BTC to record highs.
A similar situation could unfold for XRP, with analysts estimating that an XRP ETF could attract over $5 billion in initial inflows.
XRP ETF Approval Odds, March 15, 2025 | Source: Polymarket
As institutional interest continues to mount, XRP remains a prime candidate for ETF approval. Key upcoming triggers include further court rulings in the Ripple vs. SEC case, SEC official statements, and references to the regulatory status of Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Furthermore, recent departures in regulatory leadership, including Gary Gensler, alongside crypto-friendly appointments, have led to a rollback of numerous sanctions in recent weeks.
Notably, companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, Ripple (XRP), and Uniswap faced significant charges under the previous SEC administration.
These developments, combined with indications that the SEC might classify XRP as a commodity, have boosted the likelihood of multiple altcoin ETF approvals this year.
Data from Polymarket reveals that traders currently assign a 73% chance to XRP ETF approval before December 31, 2025, with similar expectations for other altcoins seeking ETF approvals.
XRP Price Projection: Is a Breakout to a $200 Billion Market Cap Imminent?
At the time of writing, XRP is stabilizing above $2.40, with a market capitalization of $140 billion, down from its recent peak of $3.10.
For Ripple to achieve a valuation of $200 billion, XRP would need to exceed $3.40—a target that could be within reach if ETF approvals occur and institutional demand matches the levels seen during Bitcoin derivatives approval in early 2024.
XRP is bouncing back from earlier lows, currently trading around $2.42, as bullish momentum becomes more evident.
After nearly 28% gains over the past four days, technical indicators suggest further upward movement ahead.
The upper boundary of the Donchian Channel (DC) at $2.99 remains the key resistance level, while the mid-point at $2.44 is acting as a short-term pivot.
A decisive move above this level could initiate further gains towards the $2.60-$2.80 range.
XRP Price Forecast | XRPUSD
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has increased to 50.89, moving above the signal line at 47.64, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.
This change in the RSI structure aligns with heightened trading volume, which has surpassed 1.13 billion, reflecting growing investor interest.
If the RSI continues to rise toward the 55-60 zone, it could confirm sustained buying pressure, pushing XRP towards the $2.99 resistance level.
On the downside, failing to maintain the $2.30 support could negate the current recovery, leaving XRP vulnerable to a potential drop back to $1.90.
Still, with increasing volume and the RSI reclaiming neutral levels, the sentiment appears bullish.
If price action remains above $2.44, XRP could further its rally toward $2.80, with a breakout above $2.99 allowing for a retest of $3.40, effectively propelling Ripple’s valuation past the $200 billion mark.