The price of Toncoin has increased by 45% from its monthly low following Pavel Durov’s departure from France after several months.
On Saturday, Toncoin (TON) reached a peak of $3.6240, marking its highest point since February 24, and pushing its market capitalization beyond $8.4 billion.
Pavel Durov’s Exit from France
This price surge can be attributed to the ongoing recovery in cryptocurrency values, alongside the news that French authorities returned Durov’s passport, allowing him to exit the nation.
Durov had been detained in France since 2024 on multiple charges, including being an accomplice in operating an online platform that facilitated illegal transactions. He faced allegations of failing to cooperate with law enforcement, drug trafficking, and money laundering.
In the wake of Durov’s arrest, a significant part of the cryptocurrency community voiced their support for him.
However, there are concerns that the recent rise in Toncoin’s price may not be sustainable, given its relatively weak on-chain metrics. Data from TonStat indicates that the TON inflation rate has continued to climb, currently sitting at 0.40%—up from 0.33% in October. This inflation spike correlates with the total supply now exceeding 5.124 billion.
Moreover, daily transaction volumes have plummeted to 2.15 million from nearly 20 million in September of the previous year.
The number of active wallets on the TON Blockchain has also declined. Additionally, the total value locked in its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem has fallen to $180 million, down from approximately $800 million just a few months ago.
STON.fi, its largest decentralized exchange (DEX), currently boasts a minimal market share, processing around $7.1 million in transactions over the last 24 hours.
This poor performance can be attributed to the downturn of many tokens in the TON Blockchain, including Hamster Kombat (HMSTR), Catizen (CATI), and Tapswap, which have collectively lost billions in market capitalization.
The price of Toncoin may also see a decline as investors react to the news about Durov’s release. Historically, traders have tended to initially overreact to significant news before selling off later. A similar scenario occurred when Cardano’s price surged on being mentioned as part of President Trump’s stockpile, only to experience a significant drop shortly thereafter.
Toncoin Price Analysis
The daily chart indicates that the price of TON has rebounded after hitting a low of $2.3650 earlier this month. It reached a high of $3.50, aligning with the 50-day moving average, which suggests strong resistance at this level.
Toncoin also faced resistance at the weak stop and reverse point of the Murrey Math Lines. As the excitement surrounding Durov’s news fades, it is likely that the token will resume its downward trend and may drop below $3.