The Bitcoin market has undergone a significant reset, with more than $10 billion in open interest lost in just two months, leading experts to predict a potential recovery in Bitcoin prices.
According to the latest market insights from analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s (BTC) open interest soared to an all-time high of $33 billion on Jan. 17, indicating a high level of leverage in the market. However, recent political uncertainties linked to former U.S. President Donald Trump have resulted in a series of liquidations.
As a result, nearly $10 billion in open interest evaporated between Feb. 20 and Mar. 4. This significant decline caused Bitcoin’s change in 90-day futures open interest to drop to -14%, which typically suggests a market reset before a price recovery. Analysts maintain that by reducing excessive speculation, these phases can create a more solid foundation for future expansion.
Despite this downturn, the long-term perspective for Bitcoin remains positive. Economist Timothy Peterson notes that historically, the biggest seasonal gains for Bitcoin occur in April and October. His latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin could potentially achieve new all-time highs before June, with a median target set at $126,000.
Additionally, his “Lowest Price Forward” model, which forecasts a price level that Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below, suggests that Bitcoin’s price floor has now risen to $69,000, with a 95% likelihood of holding. Historical bull markets have shown that corrections, like Bitcoin’s recent 30% decline, often lead to robust recoveries.
Yet, not all experts share a fully optimistic view. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, cautioned during a YouTube stream on Mar. 15 that Bitcoin’s bullish cycle could be at risk if it dips below the 2024 highs, which are in the lower $70,000s. Cowen draws parallels to 2017, when Bitcoin revisited the previous year’s high.
He posits that if Bitcoin closes in the low $60,000s, the bull market may be over. Furthermore, Cowen points out that maintaining levels above $70,000–$73,000 would uphold the market’s structure. A drop below this range could signal a lower high in the macro trend, potentially leading to a more pessimistic outlook by Q3.
Currently, Bitcoin is navigating a critical consolidation phase, with its price resting at $82,900 at the time of writing. Should historical trends hold, this reset could set the stage for another vigorous rally in the months ahead.