(All times ET unless stated otherwise)
Bitcoin (BTC) seems to have established some steadiness around its 200-day moving average at approximately $84,000, recovering after dropping below $77,000 earlier last week. This broader market rebound has been driven primarily by memecoins, layer-2 tokens, and gaming tokens.
Nonetheless, achieving a consistent upward trend may still prove difficult, particularly as the current administration appears to demonstrate a greater tolerance for market fluctuations than previously anticipated. Just a couple of months ago, following the inauguration, there was a wave of optimism in the crypto space that any shocks induced by tariffs would lead to immediate policy intervention from the government.
This optimism, however, appears to have been unfounded. Over the weekend, the Treasury Secretary remarked that adjustments in the market are healthy and a normal part of economic cycles, suggesting that the expected “Trump put” may take longer to arrive than traders were hoping for.
More significantly, during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” the Secretary did not dismiss the likelihood of a recession. This stance sharply contrasts with the usual approach taken by government figures who typically focus on a more optimistic narrative during challenging times.
This might indicate that there is reluctance to ease off on tariff policies just yet, keeping risk assets in a precarious state. If stock prices keep declining, it’s tough to envision Bitcoin maintaining its strength, particularly given the current lack of encouraging narratives in the crypto sphere.
“It’s just a hunch, but I don’t think the administration will change course on tariffs and the push to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. at these pricing levels,” noted an expert in an email. “I can’t visualize a situation where risk assets plummet, but crypto remains unscathed, or where volatility in traditional markets doesn’t affect crypto’s implied volatility.”
Additionally, consumer sentiment is waning, which could exacerbate the recent risk-averse tendencies in both crypto and conventional markets. A chart recently shared by a macro strategist shows an unprecedented proportion of U.S. consumers fearing worsening economic conditions over the next year (see Chart of the Day below).
The spotlight on macroeconomic indicators means traders will be closely observing the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday for clues regarding the central bank’s willingness to introduce stimulus. The threshold for action is low, as the Fed Chair indicated the bank is currently in a wait-and-see mode to evaluate how recent policies impact the economy before deciding to cut rates.
In other developments, the founder of a decentralized finance venture confirmed that a consensus was achieved against the introduction of a new token for an initiative aimed at integrating real-world assets into decentralized finance.
It’s reported that there will be communications with a prominent foreign leader regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. A digital asset brokerage announced that it executed the first block trade in a particular futures contract with a trading partner. Stay alert!
Upcoming Events
- Crypto:
- Macro
- March 17, 8:30 a.m.: Release of February sales data by the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.7% vs. Prev. -0.9%
- Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.2%
- March 18, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada will release February consumer price index data.
- Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.4%
- Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.1%
- Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.6% vs. Prev. 0.1%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.1% vs. Prev. 1.9%
- March 18, 8:30 a.m.: February residential construction figures will be published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Housing Starts Est. 1.375M vs. Prev. 1.366M
- March 18, 11:00 p.m.: The Bank of Japan will issue its monetary policy statement.
- Interest Rate Decision Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0.5%
- March 19, 6:00 a.m.: Eurostat will unveil (final) February eurozone consumer price index data.
- Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
- Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.3%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.5%
- March 19, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a live-streamed FOMC press conference 30 minutes later.
- Fed Funds Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
- March 19, 5:30 p.m.: The Central Bank of Brazil will announce its interest rate decision.
- Selic Rate Est. 14.25% vs. Prev. 13.25%
- March 17, 8:30 a.m.: Release of February sales data by the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Earnings (Estimates sourced from FactSet)
- March 27: KULR Technology Group, post-market
- March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings, pre-market
Token Events
- Governance votes & proposals
- Aave governance is deliberating the launch of a new initiative to facilitate institutional access to stablecoin liquidity while fulfilling issuer requirements.
- Balancer governance is considering the implementation of Balancer V3 on a specific mainnet.
- March 17, 10 a.m.: A certain platform will conduct a call to discuss several proposals related to its operations.
- March 18, 6 a.m.: A specific token will host an Ask Me Anything session concerning its ecosystem’s expansion.
- March 18, 8 a.m.: A platform is organizing an AMA session with its VP of Product and a community representative.
- Unlocks
- March 18: A specific token will unlock a segment of its circulating supply valued at approximately $79.80 million.
- March 18: Another token will unlock part of its circulating supply worth around $34.1 million.
- March 21: A token will unlock 1.39% of its supply, estimated at about $14.04 million.
- March 23: A certain token will unlock a significant portion of its supply valued at approximately $96.80 million.
- March 31: A token will unlock around $27.31 million of its circulating supply.
- Token Listings
- March 18: A token will be listed on a specific exchange.
- March 18: Another token will make its debut on a different exchange.
- March 31: A major exchange plans to delist several tokens from its platform.
Conferences
Token Talk
(Author name)
- The trading volumes on one blockchain exceeded those of both Ethereum and Solana over the weekend.
- Decentralized exchanges operating on that blockchain accumulated over $1.7 billion in trading volume each day over the past three days, with new memecoins offering fresh opportunities for traders.
- One DEX alone handled over $1.2 billion in volume within the previous 24 hours, positively impacting the price of its associated token.
- A newly introduced memecoin emerged as the most discussed token on a social platform, gaining listings on various exchanges.
- This memecoin was launched via a recent initiative on the blockchain, starting with a minimal market cap that rapidly appreciated to over $100 million. It holds no intrinsic value beyond its meme appeal, relying on community engagement and speculative trading for its success.
- Data from decentralized exchanges indicates that there has been a surge in token issuance activities recently, although many new projects fail to achieve significant market capitalization.
- Simultaneously, the major coin from that blockchain has gained $5% in the past 24 hours, contrasting with a broader market decline.
Derivatives Positioning
- The slightly positive perpetual funding rates for major cryptocurrencies highlight cautious sentiment and raise doubts about a price rebound. Various altcoins are seeing negative funding rates, which suggests a preference for short positions.
- The futures basis for major cryptocurrencies remains low at around 5%.
- Short-term options for major coins are pricier than call options.
- Top trading volumes in options for a major coin indicated a pattern of call selling and put buying.
Market Movements:
- The price of BTC is down 0.9% from Friday at $83,468.34 (24hrs: -0.23%)
- The price of ETH is down 0.67% at $1,910.26 (24hrs: +0.18%)
- A selected group of cryptocurrencies is down 0.76% at 2,625.62 (24hrs: -0.33%)
- The staking rate for a major coin is up by 0.03% at 2.96%
- The funding rate for BTC stands at 0.0075% (8.2% annualized) on a major exchange
- The dollar index is down 0.14% at 103.57
- Gold remains unchanged at $2,996.63/oz
- Silver is up 0.18% at $33.84/oz
- The Nikkei 225 closed +0.93% at 37,396.52
- Hang Seng ended +0.77% at 24,145.57
- The FTSE is up 0.21% at 8,650.39
- Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.22% at 5,415.98
- DJIA closed on Friday +1.65% at 41,488.19
- The S&P 500 ended +2.13% at 5,638.94
- Nasdaq closed +2.61% at 17,754.09
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.45% at 24,553.40
- The S&P Latin America 40 rose +3.83% at 2,432.92
- The 10-year Treasury yield is down 3 bps at 4.29%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.35% at 5,672.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures decreased by 0.31% at 19,858.50
- E-mini Dow Jones futures are down 0.39% at 41,685.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 61.60 (-0.25%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02289 (0.18%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 815 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.38
- Total Fees: 5.22 BTC / $436,428
- CME Futures Open Interest: 149,470 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 27.6 oz
- BTC market cap relative to gold: 7.84%
Technical Analysis
- The ratio between Bitcoin and gold has declined to levels not seen since early November. The drop has breached the March 2024 high, now acting as a resistance level.
- The 50-day simple moving average has peaked and is trending downward, potentially crossing below the 200-day SMA, often referred to as a death cross, which would indicate a prolonged period of gold outperforming Bitcoin.
Crypto Equities
- A leading cryptocurrency strategy company closed last Friday at $297.49 (+13%) but is down by 1.91% in pre-market trading at $291.80
- Another cryptocurrency exchange closed at $183.12 (+3.17%) but is down by 0.63% at $181.97 in pre-market
- A cryptocurrency-focused financial company closed at C$17.98 (+8.18%)
- A cryptocurrency mining firm ended at $13.18 (+8.39%) but is down by 0.68% at $13.09 in pre-market
- Another mining company closed at $7.82 (+6.98%) but is down by 0.77% at $7.76 in pre-market
- A scientific cryptocurrency startup closed at $8.81 (+1.73%) but is now down 1.14% at $8.71 in pre-market trading
- A clean energy cryptocurrency firm closed at $7.97 (+3.64%) but has dropped by 1.25% to $7.87 in pre-market trading
- An ETF related to Bitcoin mining closed at $15.30 (+5.01%)
- A biotech company focusing on medical innovations closed at $34.35 (+5.3%) but is down 0.79% at $34.08
- A blockchain technology firm closed at $28.05 (+7.55%) but is down by 7.27% at $26.01 in pre-market trading
ETF Flows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs:
- Daily net flow: -$59.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $35.29 billion
- Total Bitcoin holdings ~ 1,118 million.
Spot Ethereum ETFs:
- Daily net flow: -$46.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.53 billion
- Total Ethereum holdings ~ 3.521 million.
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- The percentage of U.S. consumers anticipating worsened business conditions in the upcoming months has reached an all-time high.
- This trend suggests potential difficulties for risk and growth-sensitive assets.