The market seems to be overlooking Bitcoin Depot’s projected growth in 2025, as highlighted by a report from a crypto equity analyst at H.C. Wainwright & Co.
Bitcoin Depot (NASDAQ: BTM), known for its Bitcoin kiosks operating across 48 states, disclosed its fourth-quarter and full-year results for 2024 on March 18. The total revenue reached $573.7 million for the year, reflecting a 17% decrease compared to the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA also dropped by 31%, totaling $38.7 million.
This downturn is attributed to the company’s strategic move to shift underperforming kiosks to more lucrative locations. While this decision has temporarily impacted results, it is expected to pave the way for enhanced performance in 2025, according to the analyst.
Q1 guidance suggests optimism
The company has projected a year-over-year revenue increase of 9% to 11% for the first quarter, estimating it to be around $154 million. EBITDA is also expected to fall between $12 million and $14 million, indicating over 200% growth compared to Q1 2024, far surpassing the consensus forecast of $7.4 million.
This guidance not only exceeded market expectations but also signals an improved outlook for operational performance. The fact that the company is able to provide guidance for the first time in over a year is seen as a strong indicator of operational stability. The analyst remarked:
“This is the first time in a year that management has issued formal financial guidance, which in and of itself is bullish, as we see it.”
Favorable projections for 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, projections include a 5% revenue growth as BTM expands its kiosk deployments and improves profitability through its strategic repositioning. The analyst also anticipates a 24% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by operational efficiencies and stricter expense management.
Management has also mentioned the potential for initiating a dividend this year, thanks to robust cash flow generation. The analyst stressed that this could significantly boost investor confidence.
“We were not surprised to see the stock react positively on the print given a bullish 1Q25 outlook along with the recent underperformance in shares,” the analyst noted.
The research firm continues to maintain a Buy rating for the stock with a price target of $4, despite shares being down nearly 15% since the beginning of the year.