The price of Bitcoin has remained in a narrow range, but historical trends and on-chain indicators hint that a breakout may be imminent.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is fluctuating between peaks of $84,000 and $82,000, with buyers struggling to gain traction. Although market sentiment remains cautious, historical trends and data indicate a potential for movement.
As highlighted by an analyst in a recent post on X, Bitcoin’s current price behavior mirrors that of June 2021. After a sharp decline in that period, Bitcoin found itself nestled between the 21-week and 50-week EMAs.
Eventually, it broke free in late July, going on to achieve an all-time high in November. Presently, Bitcoin is again confined to this same range, stirring speculation that history might repeat itself.
The analyst also pointed out that Bitcoin’s selling pressure is diminishing. Recent sell-offs have occurred with lower-than-normal trading volumes, suggesting that sellers are losing momentum. This shift has opened the doors for buyers, with the past week seeing a surge in buying activity. Such changes have historically led to strong uptrends in prior cycles.
According to data from a leading analytics platform, Bitcoin is currently in a deleveraging phase, which means excess leverage in the market is being unwound. Historically, such phases have offered short- to medium-term buying opportunities and have set the stage for recoveries. Previous cycles indicate that Bitcoin often enjoys robust price rebounds following these leverage resets.
An increase in the 3-6 month UTXO age bands—which indicate how long Bitcoin has been held—serves as another significant indicator. An analysis released earlier indicated that the number of coins in this category has been rising, similar to trends observed during the mid-2024 correction.
This suggests that more investors are choosing to hold onto their Bitcoin rather than sell, thereby decreasing the available supply. In past cycles, such accumulation has played a significant role in establishing market bottoms and igniting fresh rallies.
Despite these encouraging signs, outflows from Bitcoin ETFs based in the U.S. have persisted for five consecutive weeks—the longest streak recorded. Previously, in April 2024, outflows spanned four weeks, setting the earlier record.
While this indicates short-term uncertainty, the potential for Bitcoin to make a substantial move remains. If selling pressure continues to ease and accumulation rises, a breakout could happen soon, should historical patterns continue to hold.