According to Ki Young Ju, the founder of a prominent crypto research firm, the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market has come to an end.
Ju shared his perspective on X, anticipating a 6-12 month period characterized by either bearish trends or stagnation in price, attributing this expectation to diminishing liquidity in the market.
“New liquidity is essential. The on-chain realized cap has hit a standstill, indicating a lack of fresh capital entering the market. For instance, BlackRock’s IBIT experienced three consecutive weeks of outflows,” he noted in a Telegram message. “Despite record trading volumes approaching $100K, Bitcoin’s price has shown minimal movement. In the absence of new liquidity to counter significant selling pressure, this is a bearish indicator.”
A recent analysis suggested the potential for Bitcoin to return to the $63K level, attributing this to bearish indications from critical valuation metrics like the MVRV Ratio Z-score, which assesses Bitcoin’s market value against its realized value to pinpoint overbought or oversold situations.
When the MVRV Z-score falls below its 365-day moving average, it signifies a weakening momentum for BTC’s price, historically associated with more profound corrections or the beginning of bear markets.
The support range of $75K-$78K is deemed crucial, as analysts have observed that dwindling BTC demand, reflected in reduced whale accumulation and net sales by U.S.-based spot ETFs, compounds the downward pressure, raising the likelihood of a more considerable price drop.
This perspective aligns with recent comments from experts at LMAX Group and Coinbase Institutional, both of whom cautioned that ongoing weakness in U.S. equities due to economic uncertainty and global tensions could amplify bearish trends in the crypto market, with the possibility of stagflation also looming.
Betting platforms show a 51% probability that BTC will finish the week in the $81-$87K range, and a 31% chance of reaching $75K by the month’s end.
Over the past month, Bitcoin has declined by 15%, as reflected in recent data, erasing any gains made after the election.