Bitcoin ETFs, Frog-Themed Tokens See Renewed Interest

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless specified)

Bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), and the overall cryptocurrency market are encountering fresh challenges, undoing some of the progress achieved after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell minimized fears surrounding inflation driven by tariffs.

Former President Donald Trump is expected to address attendees at Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in New York later today, with traders eager to learn how the administration intends to procure BTC without affecting the budget. However, temper your expectations, as the chances of such an announcement are slim.

It is more likely that Trump will reiterate his goal of establishing America as the “crypto capital of the world,” which could still stir the markets.

On a brighter note, increasing interest in U.S.-listed spot ETFs is bolstering market resilience. On Wednesday, bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $11.8 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of positive flows, according to Farside Investors. Conversely, ether spot ETFs noted a net outflow of $11.7 million, extending a withdrawal streak to 11 days.

“Multiple catalysts continue to foster a bullish sentiment,” noted Blockhead Research Network. “The exploration by the U.S. government of budget-neutral methods for accumulating bitcoin could have transformative implications for this cycle. Furthermore, the introduction of Solana futures on the CME presents a strong bullish signal for altcoins, potentially enhancing institutional interest in SOL.”

In terms of on-chain activity, data from IntoTheBlock indicates that large holders now possess approximately 62,000 more BTC than they did at the start of the month, suggesting renewed accumulation following almost a year of decreasing holdings. Additionally, XRP whales have also been active buyers over the past two months.

Meanwhile, the SUI token has shown resilience, aiming to build on its gains from Wednesday after Canary Capital Group, an institutional crypto trading firm, filed for a Sui exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the SEC.

In broader market news, a domain claim page for Hyperlane, an open interoperability framework, appeared, sparking speculation on social media about a potential token airdrop.

Traditional markets presented mixed signals, with the dollar-yen facing a death cross pattern, hinting at a possible rally in the Japanese currency, often viewed as a safe haven. Meanwhile, copper prices approached record highs, a positive sign for riskier assets. Stay tuned!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 20, 8:00 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision.
    • Bank Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
  • March 20, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor publishes employment data for the week ending March 15.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 224K vs. Prev. 220K
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1890K vs. Prev. 1870K
  • March 20, 3:00 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases Q4 employment data.
    • Unemployment Rate Prev. 6.9%
  • March 20, 7:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications releases February CPI data.
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3.2%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.5%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4%
  • March 21, 6:30 a.m.: The Bank of Russia is anticipated to announce its interest rate decision.
    • Key Rate Est. 21% vs. Prev. 21%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02
  • March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $14.13 million.
  • March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $240.90 million.
  • March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $28.06 million.
  • April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $158.56 million.
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $117.81 million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $12.31 million.
• Token Listings
  • March 20: Jupiter (JUP) to be listed on Binance.US.
  • March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Tokens themed around frogs surged on Thursday, with a KEKIUS MAXIMUS token skyrocketing 96% after Elon Musk shared a photo featuring a “Kekius Maximus” portrait on X.
• He replied “ok” to a suggestion from a user to change his display name to “Kekius Maximus,” further amplifying attention on frog-related memes and tokens. This name is associated with existing frog-themed coins like pepe, which depicts a frog dressed as a Roman gladiator.
• Musk’s endorsement has led to speculation about whether he is hinting at support for the existing KEKIUS token or simply joining in on the day’s festivities—though this has certainly induced volatility in such tokens.
• The phrase gained traction when Musk first adopted Kekius Maximus as his display name on X on December 31.
• The connection to Kek also nods to the “Cult of Kek,” a playful internet phenomenon that links the term to an ancient Egyptian frog-headed god associated with chaos and darkness.
• The eponymous token launched at that time surged to a market value of nearly $200 million shortly after release but dropped over 95% once the initial excitement faded.
• Memecoins often experience spikes when Musk references them due to his considerable influence and devoted following, with such tokens typically being sentiment-driven and benefitting from attention that transforms Musk’s light-hearted mentions—such as a simple nod—into significant price movers.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC global futures open interest has risen to $13.3 billion, the highest level since March 4, according to Coinglass data. ETH open interest remains below $2 billion.
• The basis in CME’s BTC one-month futures has fallen below an annualized 5% despite the overnight price rallies, indicating limited engagement from institutional traders. The ETH basis continues to hover around 5%.
• DOGE, APT, XMR, BCH, XRP, LTC, ADA, and NEAR show a negative cumulative volume delta, suggesting net selling despite the price rebounds.
• Deribit’s BTC options have turned bullish, with front and near-dated calls now commanding higher premiums than puts. In contrast, ETH lags behind in overall sentiment.

Market Movements:

• BTC is down 0.26% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday, priced at $83,576.60 (24hrs: +2.07%)
• ETH is down 2.85% at $1,980.15 (24hrs: +0.3%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.96% at 2,711.65 (24hrs: +3.04%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 3.02%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0043% (4.74% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.46% at 103.90
• Gold is up 0.19% at $3,039.20/oz
• Silver is down 0.19% at $33.49/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed on Wednesday -0.25% at 37,751.88
• Hang Seng closed on Thursday -2.23% at 24,219.95
• FTSE is down 0.33% at 8,678.09
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.92% at 5,456.82
• DJIA closed on Wednesday +0.92% at 41,964.63
• S&P 500 closed +1.08% at 5,675.29
• Nasdaq closed +1.41% at 17,750.79
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.47% at 25,069.21
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.77% at 2,495.85
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.22%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% at 5,724.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.16% at 19,919.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 42,290.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.60 (0.04%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02327 (-1.90%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 804 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $48.76
• Total Fees: 5.28 BTC / $453,536
• CME Futures Open Interest: 154,690 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 27.9 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.91%

Technical Analysis

• Nvidia (NVDA), a major player in the Nasdaq, has triggered a head-and-shoulders breakdown, signaling a potential shift from a bullish to a bearish trend.
• This breakdown offers bearish signals for risk assets.
• The 90-day correlation between NVDA and bitcoin stands at 0.6.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $304.23 (+7.43%), down 2.58% at $296 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $189.75 (+4.75%), down 2.16% at $185.20
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.70 (+3.57%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.53 (+3.81%), down 1.68% at $12.32
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.78 (+5.14%), up 0.39% at $7.75
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.68 (+8.23%), down 0.12% at $8.67
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.01 (+5.53%), down 1.12% at $7.92
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.20 (+6.67%), down 6.12% at $14.27
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $40.04 (+12.82%), down 3.25% at $38.74
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $40.75 (+34.67%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $11.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $35.88 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1,119 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$11.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.46 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.450 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• Coinbase’s layer 2 scaling solution, Base, maintains its position as the platform with the highest dollar value of assets received via crypto bridges.
• Berachain and Solana occupy the No. 2 and No. 3 slots, while Arbitrum stands out for experiencing the most outflows.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether