BTC Price Set for Worst Q1 Since 2020 as Trump Approaches 100 Days

(All times ET unless specified otherwise)

As we approach the end of March, the first quarter has fallen short of expectations, particularly when it comes to price movements within the crypto sector.

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by 10%, marking its toughest first-quarter showing since 2020, and ether (ETH) has experienced its poorest first quarter since its launch. However, bitcoin has remained relatively stable this March.

The markets are currently navigating the last stages of President Donald Trump’s initial 100 days in office, a time typically characterized by uncertainty and volatility—a trend anticipated to continue at least until the end of April.

With the quarter’s end nearing, adverse liquidity conditions and position adjustments may result in heightened volatility and erratic price movements, according to trading newsletter founders.

Even with recent weaknesses, there remains a bullish sentiment for the pair as they head into the second quarter. A somewhat softer stance from the Federal Reserve during its March meeting—though no rate cuts were announced—coupled with a weakening U.S. dollar, increased fiscal expenditure in the EU, and a U.S. economy that is slowing but not failing, are seen as supportive factors for a robust upcoming quarter.

Bitcoin began dipping on Thursday following Trump’s lack of a definitive announcement regarding a bitcoin strategic reserve or a tax-exempt policy for crypto capital gains.

“Market participants were looking for clarity on capital gains tax or a national strategy for bitcoin reserve accumulation,” noted a research network. “Instead, Trump reaffirmed his broad support for the crypto space, underscoring the importance of stablecoins in reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s position in global trade. While this is a long-term positive, the absence of immediate policy commitments sends a bearish signal in the short term.”

The research network expressed concerns that digital assets may find it challenging to maintain upward momentum, with accumulation occurring at lower price points, particularly for altcoins.

“Despite the short-term headwinds, we advise maintaining a robust investment stance, as the market could respond rapidly to any favorable developments. Current support levels are within reach,” the research network stated via email. Stay vigilant!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 23, 8:30 p.m.: S&P Global publishes (Flash) Japan’s March producer price index (PPI) data.
    • Composite PPI Prev. 52
    • Manufacturing PPI Prev. 49
    • Services PPI Prev. 53.7
  • March 24, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) U.S. March producer price index (PPI) data.
    • Composite PPI Prev. 51.6
    • Manufacturing PPI Prev. 52.7
    • Services PPI Prev. 51
• Earnings (Estimates according to FactSet data)
  • March 27: KULR Technology Group, post-market, $-0.02
  • March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings, pre-market, C$0.38

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aave DAO is deliberating on the activation of Aave Umbrella, a system intended to replace the Aave Safety Module that would allow users to stake their Aave aTokens to protect against potential bad debt and earn rewards.
  • Sky DAO is voting on an executive proposal that encompasses several vital initiatives, including implementing various rate changes, updating parameters, allocating funds for bug bounties, and initiating additional funding among other actions.
  • The Compound DAO is considering the implementation of COMP Staker, a staking mechanism designed to enhance governance and increase participation from COMP holders by allowing them to stake and delegate votes for protocol revenue shares.
  • March 21, 11:30 a.m.: Flare will conduct a session on Flare 2.0.
  • March 25, 1 a.m.: Crypto.com plans to hold an AMA session with co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek.
• Unlocks
  • March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) will unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply valued at $307.8 million.
  • March 31: Optimism (OP) will unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply valued at $26.81 million.
  • April 1: Sui (SUI) will unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply valued at $147.01 million.
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) will unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply valued at $114.79 million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) will unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply valued at $11.81 million.
• Token Listings
  • March 21: PancakeSwap (CAKE) to be listed on HashKey.
  • March 21: Orca (ORCA) to be listed on Upbit.
  • March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talks

By a contributor

• The issuance platform Pump.Fun launched its Pumpswap service on Thursday, enabling tokens created on the platform to be traded on this new service rather than the decentralized exchange Raydium, where they were previously available.
• Pump introduced a revised fee structure, replacing the prior 6 SOL migration fee with a trading fee of 0.25%.
• Plans are underway to create a revenue-sharing model that encourages creators to prioritize long-term token growth by receiving revenue from every trade, moving away from the previous approach that favored quick sell-offs.
• Pump.fun metrics show a decrease in token launches and graduations, with 29,000 coins launched on March 8 but only 264 graduating, leading to a success rate—defined by tokens listed on a DEX—falling below 1%.

Derivatives Positioning

• Bitcoin futures open interest has slipped to 628,000 BTC from a weekly high of nearly 650,000 BTC, reflecting slightly positive perpetual funding rates. This suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price drop is more a result of unwinding long positions rather than the establishment of new shorts.
• Open interest in ETH futures continues to stay elevated at record levels above 10 million ETH, indicating that traders are still shorting a declining market.
• XRM, BNB, and TRX are key performers in the altcoin arena, showing a positive cumulative volume delta in the last 24 hours, indicating net buying activity in these markets.
• Short and near-dated options for BTC have turned bearish, signaling renewed interest in puts extending to the May expiration. Ether puts are currently more expensive than those for Bitcoin.

Market Movements:

• BTC has dropped 0.73% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday, priced at $83,935.26 (24hrs: -1.43%)
• ETH has declined 1.19% to $1,960.00 (24hrs: -1.18%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.29%, now at 2,648.64 (24hrs: -2.08%)
• The Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has increased by 5 basis points to 3.06%
• The BTC funding rate stands at 0.0108% (3.95% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.16% at 104.02
• Gold has moved down 0.12% to $3,033.22/oz
• Silver is lower by 1.08% at $33.11/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed Thursday down 0.25% at 37,677.06
• Hang Seng saw a decrease of 2.19%, ending at 23,689.72
• FTSE has declined 0.49% to 8,659.67
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.76% at 5,410.04
• DJIA closed on Thursday unchanged at 41,953.32
• S&P 500 wrapped up at -0.22%, ending at 5,662.89
• Nasdaq finished down 0.33% at 17,691.63
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,060.24
• S&P 40 Latin America closed low by 0.96% at 2,471.90
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 basis points at 4.23%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures have decreased by 0.21% at 5,700.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.25% at 19,828.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures have seen a small drop of 0.19 at 42,204.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.52 (0.16%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02348 (-0.38%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 808 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $48.01
• Total Fees: 5.47 BTC / $465,938
• CME Futures Open Interest: 150,645 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 27.4 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.79%

Technical Analysis

• The XRP/ETH daily chart indicates that the MACD histogram, which signals momentum, has recently created a lower high, diverging negatively from the continued increase in the ratio.
• This divergence implies that XRP could lag behind ether in performance in the upcoming days.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed Thursday at $302.07 (-0.71%), down 0.83% to $299.55 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $190.38 (+0.33%), down 0.76% to $188.93
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$18.15 (+2.54%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.50 (-0.24%), down 0.56% to $12.43
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.76 (-0.26%), down 0.13% to $7.75
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.59 (-1.04%), down 0.93% to $8.51
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.75 (-3.25%), down 0.77% to $7.69
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.98 (-1.45%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.82 (-3.05%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $48.51 (+19.04%), down 0.74% to $48.15

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $165.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $36.05 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1,120 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$12.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.45 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.452 million.

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• In the $100,000 strike call options, active positions have seen a decline, while interest in lower strike calls between $85,000 and $90,000 has surged along with renewed demand for protective puts at lower levels.
• This data points to a cautious market outlook.

While You Were Sleeping

• A group linked to North Korea has reportedly amassed more Bitcoin than Tesla (according to Arkham Intelligence).
• Research suggests Polymarket boasts a 90% accuracy rate in predicting global events.
• Australia is proposing a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, aiming to weave digital assets into the economy.
• The S&P 500’s 4% drop this year has translated into over 8% losses for eurozone investors amidst the dollar’s decline.
• Japan’s households have significantly cut back on cash holdings due to rising inflation, marking the largest decline since 1998.
• New U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil are contributing to projected gains in oil prices this week.

In the Ether