With the Federal Reserve transitioning to quantitative easing, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is optimistic that Bitcoin will rise to $110,000 before retracing to $76,500.
Arthur Hayes has returned with a fresh forecast, predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $110,000 before experiencing a drop to $76,500, driven by the Fed’s move from tightening to easing in treasury policies.
In a post on March 24, Hayes noted that the Federal Reserve appears to be shifting from a stance of quantitative tightening to quantitative easing regarding treasuries, mentioning that tariffs have become irrelevant as inflation is perceived to be “transitory.”
Although it remains to be seen if Hayes’ latest prediction holds true, his insights are in line with rising market speculation that the Federal Reserve will conclude its QT program by May, as data from prediction markets indicates a 100% probability that the Fed will halt QT by April 30.
Ending quantitative tightening could significantly impact risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, with analysts anticipating that the influx of liquidity into the market could ignite a new bull run.
Hayes has a track record of altering his views on the cryptocurrency landscape. In September 2024, he revised a previous outlook, admitting he had misjudged Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory and stated that he retains the “right to change my mind as the situation evolves.”
In a post on February 25, Hayes cautioned that Bitcoin’s price might drop to as low as $70,000 if major hedge funds started unwinding their positions in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. However, less than a month later, as market conditions changed, he modified his assessment, declaring on March 20 that Bitcoin had likely bottomed out at $77,000.