With technical indicators and shifting macroeconomic conditions suggesting a potential recovery, Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom.
In a recent analysis published on March 24, a crypto analytics company pointed out the recent consolidation and changing perspective regarding Bitcoin (BTC). Analysts had originally anticipated a deeper correction after Bitcoin fell below $95,000, indicating a breakdown from its ascending broadening wedge pattern.
Nevertheless, a more favorable macro climate and improved technical indicators have contributed to a brighter outlook. A significant factor in this shift is the Federal Reserve’s latest policy stance.
The recent FOMC meeting met expectations, with the Fed expressing readiness to consider factors beyond short-term inflationary pressures. Analysts are now forecasting possible rate cuts in the latter half of the year, creating a more supportive macro backdrop for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Moreover, Donald Trump’s recent comments regarding tariff announcements on April 2 reveal a more lenient position than he has taken previously. This change may help Bitcoin maintain its recent stability by alleviating short-term uncertainties.
Despite the optimistic developments, Bitcoin continues to face substantial resistance between $90,000 and $92,000. Analysts noted that as long as it remains within this range, the broader market is likely to continue its consolidation phase. Institutional investors are also remaining cautious as significant corporate earnings reports are set for April, which could influence overall market sentiment.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $86,917, showing slight upward momentum following its recent dip. While confirmation is still needed, the MACD indicates a potential bullish turn. According to the RSI, which stands at 51, Bitcoin is currently in neutral territory—not overbought or oversold.
With prices remaining above critical levels, short-term moving averages lend support to a bullish outlook. However, the 100-day and 50-day moving averages still indicate possible resistance and a risk of downward movement. Currently, there has been no definitive breakout from the Ichimoku Base Line, which aligns with the existing price trend.
According to the Bollinger Bands, the price is approaching the midline, which may signal an imminent breakout or rejection. To surpass the next resistance level near $90,000, Bitcoin needs to climb past the $87,000 to $88,000 range. Should it encounter rejection, support could be found between $84,500 and $85,000.
On a positive note, investor sentiment seems to be improving as last week saw the first inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since January. A more favorable macro environment and reduced selling pressure could facilitate Bitcoin’s next upward movement, notwithstanding the prevailing risks.