In the early trading hours of March 24, open interest (OI) for Bitcoin futures surged to $57.56 billion—a remarkable increase of 10.97% in just one day. Bitcoin futures OI serves as a vital gauge of market dynamics, sentiment, and potential price movements.
From March 21 to March 24, Bitcoin futures OI underwent significant fluctuations. Starting at $52.83 billion on March 21, it slightly increased to $52.86 billion on March 22, reflecting a minimal gain of 0.06%.
However, on March 23, OI dipped to $51.87 billion, marking a decline of 1.87%. The most notable development occurred on March 24, when OI jumped by 10.97% to hit $57.56 billion. This surge correlated with Bitcoin’s price rise from $83,804 on March 23 to $87,674 on March 24, a 4.62% increase.
Recent data highlights specific exchanges that showcased substantial increases in OI. BingX stood out with an impressive 121.15% rise, bringing its OI to 9.02K BTC (approximately $790 million).
Following closely, Gate.io experienced a 26.25% increase, pushing its OI to 85.88K BTC (around $7.53 billion), while Bitunix reported a 17.66% rise to 51.85K BTC (about $4.55 billion). Although BingX’s percentage increase was the highest, its total OI remains relatively modest compared to larger exchanges like Gate.io, which made a more substantial contribution to the overall OI pool.
Binance, the exchange with the largest OI at 110.43K BTC ($9.69 billion), saw a more measured growth of 9.86%—considerable given its size, yet below the market average.
The robust growth at Gate.io and Bitunix hints at expanding trading activity across mid- and smaller-tier exchanges.
Several factors likely contributed to the open interest surge on March 24. The 4.62% rally in Bitcoin’s price served as a clear catalyst, as rising prices typically draw traders into futures markets, especially for long positions anticipating further gains. Sentiment and speculation also played a crucial role in the rapid OI growth—particularly BingX’s impressive 121.15% surge.
While the price hike drove a surge in futures activity, exchange-specific factors may have further spurred these increases. For example, BingX’s impressive growth might be due to its relatively low starting point or attractive platform incentives like reduced fees or promotions, while Gate.io and Bitunix likely benefited from their larger user bases and established liquidity. Additionally, leverage and margin trading could have intensified the rise in OI.
The 10.97% increase in OI, coupled with a 4.62% price rise, suggests a bullish outlook. The fact that the OI increase outpaced the price gain indicates that traders are proactively positioning themselves for potential further upside. Nonetheless, this rapid expansion, especially on smaller exchanges like BingX, also points to increased speculation, which can amplify price fluctuations and heighten volatility risk. When leverage is involved, elevated open interest raises the chances of liquidations. Sharp price corrections could trigger forced selling, further exacerbating downward pressure.
Examining OI distribution across exchanges shows that Binance retains 16.83% of the total OI, valued at $9.69 billion, but its growth of 9.86% fell short of the market’s 10.97% average. In contrast, Gate.io’s 26.25% jump has brought its OI to 85.88K BTC, suggesting a potential shift in dominance among exchanges.
Variations in OI changes over different timeframes also revealed that shorter-term movements were less pronounced, with Kraken leading 1-hour changes at +1.22% and Bitget topping 4-hour gains at +1.82%. The 24-hour period, highlighted by BingX, captured the majority of trading activity, indicating a concentrated trading surge.
The OI/24-hour volume ratio provides additional insight. Deribit’s ratio of 4.0109 reflects lower turnover relative to its OI, suggesting a trend towards longer-term positions, while Gate.io’s ratio of 2.1339 indicates higher trading activity, consistent with its OI growth. A lower ratio typically suggests aggressive short-term trading.