Polymarket has reportedly faced a governance breach concerning their prediction market linked to Trump’s Ukrainian mineral deal, thanks to a last-minute move by a whale that swayed the outcome in their favor.
As reported by an insider, a whale invested 5 million UMA (UMA) tokens to influence the final result of the Polymarket betting pool titled “Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?”
This whale’s sudden intervention resulted in overturning the final tallies by contributing 25% of the “YES” votes, effectively manipulating the outcome via the UMA oracle.
Polymarket relies on UMA’s Optimistic Oracle to finalize market outcomes and confirm real-world events. The oracle operates based on community consensus, designating UMA token holders as “neutral arbiters of market outcomes.”
The total funds contributed to the betting pool exceeded $7 million. Following the incident, numerous traders who bet “NO” on the outcome faced significant financial losses.
When the outcome was announced, many traders contended that there was no formal confirmation indicating that an agreement had been officially made between President Trump and the Ukrainian government.
A recent report indicated that Trump stated he anticipated a revenue-sharing agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine would be “signed soon.” However, traders argued that this did not provide adequate confirmation for the betting pool results.
“This is a huge joke; Zelensky just mentioned that they are exploring a larger deal. This means there wasn’t a deal before—what a real scam,” commented a Polymarket trader in the pool’s comments.
“In the 2028 U.S. presidential election, whoever possesses more UMA will essentially determine the next president, and Polymarket will end up being a laughingstock,” remarked another trader.
A user on X with the handle @Web3Marmot criticized Polymarket in a recent post, accusing the prediction market platform of deceiving its users. They claimed that event outcomes are not determined by actual world events, but rather influenced by “powerful users who secure positions and then vote their way, irrespective of the true results.”
Furthermore, they highlighted that UMA whales voted “YES” even though the deal had neither been officially signed nor announced, indicating that the final outcome is dictated by UMA token holders, not based on real-world developments.
“The rules explicitly state that ‘The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the U.S. and Ukraine.’ Yet, there is no confirmation regarding the deal or the outcome,” wrote Web3Marmot.
Polymarket’s reaction to the controversy
In a message shared on Discord, a representative from Polymarket acknowledged the controversy surrounding the “Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?” betting pool.
“We are aware of the developments regarding the Ukrainian Rare Earth Market. This market did not resolve as our users or we anticipated. Unfortunately, since this was not a market failure, we are unable to issue refunds,” stated Tanner, a Polymarket representative.
The Polymarket team considers this a “historic situation” and claims they are collaborating with the UMA oracle team to prevent any recurrence. Additionally, they promise to provide more information to traders as they strive to better comprehend the situation and implement clearer rules.
“We’re dedicated to shaping the future of prediction markets, which necessitates creating resilient systems that everyone can trust,” wrote Tanner on the Polymarket Discord channel.