Analysts predict that Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, could acquire over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033 during a favorable market cycle, as highlighted in a recent research note.
This outlook from the analysts outlines two starkly contrasting scenarios for the company, depending on broader economic factors and the long-term price movement of Bitcoin.
Optimistic vs. pessimistic outlook
In the positive scenario, Strategy could grow its Bitcoin holdings from the current 506,137 BTC to 1,013,000 BTC — representing about 5.8% of Bitcoin’s existing circulating supply — on the assumption that Bitcoin rises to $200,000 by late 2025, reaches $500,000 by 2029, and attains $1 million by 2033.
To support such accumulation, Strategy would likely depend on sustained access to capital markets, which might require increasing its overall debt tenfold to $100 billion while generating $84 billion through equity financing.
The analysts noted that this ambitious path is contingent upon low interest rates and robust investor interest.
Conversely, the pessimistic scenario paints a more restricted future. Should Bitcoin hit a local peak in 2025 followed by a drawn-out decline, Strategy’s BTC holdings may stabilize around 514,800 BTC — only 2.6% of the supply.
This situation could compel the company to cease further acquisitions and possibly liquidate portions of its treasury to handle debt and dividends, with total debt projected to climb to $51 billion in this base-case scenario.
Positive rating upheld
In spite of the risks involved, analysts maintained an “outperform” rating for Strategy, establishing a price target of $600 — indicating a potential 75% increase from current prices.
The valuation model utilized applies a 2x EV/sales multiple for the software division, along with a 55% premium on its Bitcoin holdings, which aligns with the average market premium since its shift towards Bitcoin.
The company’s recent acquisition — 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million between March 17 and March 23 — solidified its commitment to Bitcoin, pushing its total holdings past the 500,000 BTC threshold.
As a result, Strategy now possesses more Bitcoin than any other publicly traded company, attracting interest from both individual and institutional investors.
This analysis illustrates ongoing institutional enthusiasm for Strategy’s leveraged position in Bitcoin, exemplifying a significant trend of corporate balance sheets evolving around the cryptocurrency.