Members of the cryptocurrency community are becoming increasingly hopeful about the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) following the conclusion of a lengthy legal dispute between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
On March 19, the CEO of Ripple, Brad Garlinghouse, announced that the case had come to a close. In a post on social media, Garlinghouse stated that the SEC would drop its appeal against Ripple, effectively ending the $1.3 billion lawsuit concerning unregistered securities that began in December 2020.
In light of this development, Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, expressed on social media that the approval of an XRP ETF is on the horizon. Geraci stated that it is “evident” that it’s merely a “matter of time” before the SEC gives the green light to an XRP ETF.
He also anticipated that major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity would participate in providing this financial product.
Polymarket users assign 86% probability to XRP ETF approval in 2025
In addition to Geraci, participants on the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket are also forecasting approval for an XRP ETF in 2025. As of March 26, Polymarket indicated an 86% likelihood that an XRP-based ETF would gain approval this year.
The bet is set to resolve if an XRP ETF receives SEC approval by December 31. At the time of writing, the betting market reported a volume of $55,000.
Polymarket indicates an 86% chance of a Ripple ETF approval in 2025.
Nevertheless, users assign only a 42% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved prior to July 31.
Although Polymarket is a betting site, user predictions have historically shown remarkable accuracy. A dashboard on Dune Analytics analyzing Polymarket’s predictive performance revealed that the platform has maintained over 90% accuracy a month ahead of market resolutions.
XRP price experiences only a 5% rise following the end of the SEC dispute
Despite signaling a significant milestone, the resolution of the multi-year legal confrontation between Ripple and the SEC did not lead to notable market fluctuations. On March 19, XRP was trading at $2.32 based on CoinGecko data. At the time of this writing, the price increased to approximately $2.44, marking a 5% rise.
Analysts noted on March 21 that this recent development had already been factored into the market. Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, previously remarked that the outcome had been largely anticipated.