A controversial $7 million wager on the prediction platform Polymarket has ignited a dispute between the Polymarket and UMA communities.
This bet, which predicted whether Ukraine would finalize a mineral deal with U.S. President Donald Trump prior to April, saw the probability of a “yes” surge from 9% to 100% between March 24 and 25, even though no official agreement has been made.
Polymarket utilizes UMA, an optimistic oracle system, to ascertain the outcomes of its prediction markets.
In this framework, anyone can propose a resolution by putting down a bond of $750 USDC.e, which may then be challenged. Should a disagreement arise, UMA token holders cast votes to resolve the issue.
In this instance, the bet concluded with a “yes,” prompting many users to suspect that a “UMA whale” — an individual holding a significant amount of UMA tokens capable of swaying the vote — was involved in manipulation.
Polymarket addressed the situation through its Discord channel, acknowledging that the resolution was unanticipated but refuting claims of a “market failure” that would necessitate refunds.
It emphasized that the market was resolved prematurely, as no agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. has been confirmed, while maintaining confidence in the UMA voting process to rectify the outcome.
Since then, Polymarket has reached out to its community for input on how to avoid similar issues in the future, vowing to establish clearer rules and provide updates, although specific changes have yet to be outlined.