Altcoins Slide, Gold Shines as Trump Tariffs Spur Flight to Safety

(All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The cryptocurrency market is continuing its downward trend from yesterday as traders look forward to the effects of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, scheduled to take effect on April 2, alongside significant macroeconomic data expected later today.

Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated by 2.5% in the last 24 hours, which appears quite tame compared to nearly a 6% decline in ether (ETH), 5.5% in XRP, and 7% in dogecoin (DOGE). The wider market, as reflected in the CoinDesk 20 Index, fell by 4.65%. In contrast, gold has reached new record highs.

The uptick in interest towards gold has positively impacted tokens linked to the precious metal, which, according to the latest stablecoin report, saw a market capitalization rise to $1.4 billion in March.

It’s evident that traders are aiming to minimize risk exposure while keeping a lookout for the upcoming U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report. This data has the potential to sway the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and affect future risk appetite.

Bitcoin traders are also watching for an unprecedented $12.2 billion in BTC options set to expire on Deribit today, with a maximum pain point at $85,000. Nonetheless, the implied volatility remains close to yearly lows, as experts believe the expiration won’t significantly impact the market.

“These expirations have yet to consistently drive market movements, mainly because the open interest in BTC options is relatively small compared to spot trading,” commented a trader. “That $12 billion is overshadowed by nearly $28 billion in spot volume traded over the past 24 hours.”

As the trend towards de-risking continues, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced steady inflows since mid-March, accumulating nearly $1 billion in the last two weeks. Conversely, spot ether ETFs have seen consistent outflows, with approximately $115 million exiting these funds during the same timeframe.

Going forward, it is anticipated that money managers will continue to decrease their risk exposure. This shift in sentiment has prompted analysts to raise their gold price forecast for the year to $3,300 per troy ounce, with a possible spike to $4,500 in a highly adverse scenario. Stay vigilant!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-for-1 stock split comes into effect.
• Macro
  • March 28, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announces February unemployment rate data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.5%
  • March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography reveals February unemployment rate data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • March 28, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases January GDP data.
    • GDP MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
  • March 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shares February consumer income and expenditure data.
    • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%
    • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%
    • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.9%
    • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.2%
  • April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The implementation of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs begins, alongside a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain car parts.
• Earnings (Estimates based on data)
  • March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings, pre-market, C$0.38

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Balancer DAO is considering the creation of a Balancer Alliance Program, sharing a portion of its revenue with key ecosystem partners in USDC as veBAL.
  • CoW DAO is examining an update to the score definition for buy orders after an incident on the Base network indicated that the existing version may lead to excessive solver rewards allocation.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on the conversion of 15 million ARB into stablecoins to manage via a “33/33/33 split among Karpatkey, Avantgarde & Myso, and Gauntlet.” Additionally, it is voting on allocating 10 million ARB into “on-chain strategies aimed at generating yield while securing the principal.” Voting concludes on April 3.
  • March 28, 3 a.m: Ontology will conduct a Weekly Community Update via X Spaces.
• Unlocks
  • March 31: Optimism (OP) will unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply valued at $26.47 million.
  • April 1: Sui (SUI) will unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply valued at $164.98 million.
  • April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $15.30 million.
  • April 2: Ethena (ENA) will unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $15.87 million.
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) will unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $128.09 million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) will unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.91 million.
  • April 9: Movement (MOVE) will unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply valued at $23.54 million.
• Token Listings
  • March 28: Binance will delist Aergo (AERGO).
  • March 31: Binance is set to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

A small selection of tokens are gaining notable attention on social media platforms, according to recent data, making it advantageous for traders to monitor them as market conditions improve.

Solana (SOL) is at the forefront due to its high liquidity and rising interest in Solana-based initiatives, along with Curve DAO token (CRV), which has rebounded by 30% in price and seen increased trading activity over the past three weeks.

COTI is generating buzz following a recent airdrop, with users exploring its supply and swapping challenges. At the same time, the newly released Walrus (WAL), a project within the Sui ecosystem, is experiencing a surge in interest driven by trading pair mentions and exchange listings.

Social media discussions frequently precede price shifts, indicating potential future demand or changing sentiments.

Derivatives Positioning

• Global open interest across all derivatives has dropped to $105 billion from $124 billion earlier today, paralleling the broader decline in significant digital assets.
• In the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $362 million, with long positions representing a significant 83% of the losses.
• Among assets with over $100 million in open interest, the most considerable percentage drops were recorded in Pepe (-14.0%), PNUT (-13.7%), Worldcoin (-12.6%), Avalanche (-11.9%), and BNB (-11.5%). Only three assets in this category displayed an increase in open interest over the last day: Toncoin (+15.5%), Berachain (+9.78%), and ACT (+2.15%).
• The liquidation heatmap for the largest futures pair shows significant downside liquidation clusters have been activated by recent price movements. Potential future liquidation zones are identified at $86,000 and $88,000, suggesting these levels may invite volatility if reached.

Market Movements:

• BTC is down 2.34% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $85,266.30 (24hrs: -2.28%)
• ETH is down 4.77% at $1,911.49 (24hrs: -5.51%)
• The CoinDesk 20 is down 4.37% at 2,618.54 (24hrs: -4.55%)
• The Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 basis points at 2.99%
• The BTC funding rate stands at 0.0155% (5.6666% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is stable at 104.43
• Gold is up 1.65% at $3,110.60/oz
• Silver is up 1.38% at $35.38/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed -1.8% at 37,120.33
• Hang Seng closed -0.65% at 23,426.60
• FTSE is up 0.29% at 8,691.20
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.14% at 5,373.72
• DJIA closed Thursday -0.37% at 42,299.70
• S&P 500 closed -0.33% at 5,693.31
• Nasdaq closed -0.53% at 17,804.03
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,161.10
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.27% at 2,466.98
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has decreased by 4 basis points to 4.34%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures have fallen by 0.2% to 5,727.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.36% at 19,917.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.13% at 42,546.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 62.04 (0.44%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02241 (-2.44%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 847 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $47.45
• Total Fees: 5.28 BTC / $449,016
• CME Futures Open Interest: 140,460 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 27.7 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.86%

Technical Analysis

• Ether continues to lag behind the overall market, with prices stabilizing at levels not seen since November 2023.
• With trading prices remaining below all crucial exponential moving averages (EMAs), ETH has had difficulty reclaiming prior support around $2,110, which aligns with the low points from the sell-offs on August 5 and February 3.
• This price point is expected to function as resistance unless the market can find acceptance above in the upcoming days.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $324.59 (-1.43%), down 2.87% at $315.29 in pre-market trading
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $188.58 (-2.77%), down 1.35% at $186.04
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.44 (-3.54%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.64 (-1.09%), down 1.76% at $13.40
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.77 (-1.65%), down 1.8% at $7.63
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.88 (+3.28%), down 1.52% at $7.76
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.84 (-3.45%), down 1.47% at $7.73
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.04 (-1.96%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.92 (-6.7%), up 0.22% at $37
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $52.28 (+4.56%), down 4.17% at $50.10

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $89 million
• Cumulative net flows: $36.42 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1,122 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$4.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.423 million.

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• Bitcoin dominance keeps rising and is approaching a crucial resistance level at 62.3%.
• Currently at 62.05% and well above all key exponential moving averages (EMAs), the robust BTC dominance indicates continued pressure on altcoins, with further downside risks likely if this trend persists.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether