There is a 40% likelihood of the United States entering a recession in 2025, primarily due to the prospects of a prolonged trade conflict and ongoing macroeconomic instability, as stated by market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin.
In a discussion with a financial news outlet, the analyst mentioned that although a recession isn’t likely, the existing macroeconomic volatility will create conditions unfavorable for riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Puckrin remarked:
“Trump and his advisors have indicated they haven’t entirely ruled out the possibility of a recession, which implies it is certainly a possibility. However, I wouldn’t label it as likely right now, although the odds have certainly increased.”
Puckrin further noted that while US President Donald Trump is not actively trying to induce a recession, certain actions taken by his administration, including cuts to federal employment and spending in an effort to balance the budget, could inadvertently lead to a recession.
He asserted that the current macroeconomic uncertainty has been a key contributor to the recent dip in the US Dollar Index (DXY), prompting investors to redirect their capital toward more attractive opportunities in European markets as they seek refuge from the economic instability affecting US markets.
The DXY, which measures the strength of the US dollar, experienced a sharp decline in March 2025.
Related: Timeline: How trade tariffs impacted Bitcoin, dropping it below $80K
Concerns over trade conflict push Bitcoin prices down
President Trump’s tariffs on trading partners have triggered significant turmoil in the cryptocurrency markets, leading to a substantial decline in altcoin valuations and a 24% correction in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price since the January 20 peak of over $109,000.
The tariffs and the anxiety surrounding a potentially extended trade conflict have shifted market sentiment towards extreme caution, in stark contrast to the high spirits experienced following Trump’s re-election in November 2025 and the subsequent inauguration on January 20.
The price of Bitcoin has faced challenges amidst the trade war developments, currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).
Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst, mentioned that the impacts of tariffs on crypto markets are expected to persist until April 2025.
If negotiations to resolve the tariffs succeed or if the Trump administration adopts a more conciliatory approach, the markets could see a recovery, according to the analyst.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, recently observed that Bitcoin appeared to establish a price bottom in March 2025, coinciding with a moderation in Trump’s rhetoric regarding trade tariffs—indicating a possible shift in price trends.
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