By 2030, approximately 25% of companies on the S&P 500 may have made investments in Bitcoin, driven by treasury managers’ concerns about job security if they overlook potential gains from Bitcoin, according to a partner at a financial advisory firm with a tech focus.
“I predict that by 2030, around a quarter of the S&P 500 will feature BTC as a long-term asset on their balance sheets,” remarked Elliot Chun, a partner at Architect Partners, in a blog published on March 28.
Chun emphasized that this trend will be influenced by treasury managers feeling the need to at least experiment with Bitcoin (BTC).
“If you give it a shot and succeed, you’re hailed as a genius. If it doesn’t pan out, you can at least say you tried. But if you don’t attempt it without a solid reason, your position could be in jeopardy.”
Strategy (MSTR) stands as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin among the 89 publicly traded companies that currently include Bitcoin in their financials, based on data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
Another company could soon join this group following GameStop’s recent $1.3 billion offering of convertible notes on March 26, which they plan to use to purchase their initial Bitcoin.
Currently, only Tesla and Block are the S&P 500-listed companies holding Bitcoin—indicating that at least 123 additional firms on the S&P 500 would need to invest in Bitcoin by 2030 for Chun’s forecast to come true.
Tech executives and investors foresee continued Bitcoin growth
Experts like ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, and Block CEO Jack Dorsey predict Bitcoin could reach between $500,000 and $1,000,000 or even beyond by 2030.
Moreover, companies that have adopted Bitcoin treasury strategies have observed a favorable impact on their stock prices. Strategy, for example, has experienced a staggering over 2,000% increase since its initial Bitcoin investment on August 20, 2020—significantly outpacing Bitcoin itself (781.1%) and the S&P 500 (64.8%) during the same period.
However, Chun pointed out a critical distinction between companies that implement Bitcoin for treasury diversification and risk management versus those that completely restructure their business models to lead in Bitcoin treasury within their sectors.
“Firms attempting to mimic MSTR’s success through these strategies might be setting themselves up for disappointment,” noted Chun, emphasizing that MSTR is a “one-of-a-kind” case.
MSTR offered US asset managers a way to gain exposure to Bitcoin when direct holdings weren’t feasible. This scenario changed after the Securities and Exchange Commission approved several applications for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on January 10, 2024.
Despite the growing embrace of Bitcoin, using it as a treasury asset remains an “unproven strategy” for businesses hoping it will provide a hedge against US dollar and fiat inflation or enhance their treasury risk management, Chun observed.
Nonetheless, he maintained that Bitcoin is a more adaptable treasury asset than gold, citing the difficulties associated with the storage and transport of gold bars.
Conversely, Bitcoin is recognized as a digital commodity that fits GAAP standards as a tangible asset with a fungible and liquid nature, he added.
Earlier this month, crypto asset manager Bitwise debuted the Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF on March 11, designed to track companies holding at least 1,000 Bitcoin in their corporate treasuries.