(All times ET unless stated otherwise)
As trade tensions rise, stock markets in Asia and Europe have continued to drop following last week’s downturn. Japan’s Nikkei 225 saw a decline of 4%, marking a move into correction territory after it slid over 10% from its peak. European indexes such as the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40 also opened lower, in tandem with decreasing U.S. stock futures.
The situation is compounded by the upcoming announcement of new tariffs by President Trump, scheduled for April 2, which he’s referred to as “Liberation Day.” The president is set to introduce taxes on nations he believes have unfair trade practices with the U.S.
“You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what unfolds,” Trump mentioned. His statement indicates that while these tariffs may initially target a broad array of nations, he might consider negotiating terms with certain countries.
On Friday, U.S. stocks dipped further after a core PCE inflation report came in hotter than expected—the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure. Market volatility is likely to persist as the U.S. jobs report is due out Friday, with predictions estimating the unemployment rate could increase to 4.2%. Additionally, nonfarm payrolls are expected to come in at 128,000, a drop from the previous month’s 151,000.
Amid this uncertainty, gold prices have surged, surpassing $3,100 per ounce for the first time—up 1.2% for the day and nearly 20% year-to-date. At the same time, bitcoin (BTC) continues to face challenges, trading just above $80,000. It is down over 3% this month and 12% for the quarter, marking its weakest performance since Q4 2022.
Considering ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency has fared even worse this quarter, experiencing a 46% decline—the largest drop since 2018. Consequently, the ether-to-bitcoin ratio has plummeted to 0.02195, hitting its lowest point since May 2020. Back then, bitcoin was valued under $10,000, while ether was just above $200. Keep vigilant!
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- Macro
- April 1, 4:30 a.m.: S&P Global will release (Final) U.K. March producer price index (PPI) data.
- Manufacturing PPI Estimate: 44.6 vs. Previous: 46.9
- April 1, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat will issue (Flash) eurozone March consumer price index (CPI) data.
- Core Inflation Rate YoY Estimate: 2.5% vs. Previous: 2.6%
- Inflation Rate MoM Previous: 0.4%
- Inflation Rate YoY Estimate: 2.2% vs. Previous: 2.3%
- Unemployment Rate Estimate: 6.2% vs. Previous: 6.2%
- April 1, 9:00 a.m.: S&P Global will release Brazil March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
- Manufacturing PMI Previous: 53
- April 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global will release Canada March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
- Manufacturing PMI Previous: 47.8
- April 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global will release (Final) U.S. March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
- Manufacturing PMI Estimate: 49.8 vs. Previous: 52.7
- April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor will reveal the February JOLTs report (job openings, hires, and separations).
- Job Openings Estimate: 7.68M vs. Previous: 7.74M
- Job Quits Previous: 3.266M
- April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release March U.S. manufacturing sector data.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI Estimate: 50.3 vs. Previous: 50.3
- April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The reciprocal tariffs plan from the administration, announced on February 13, will go into effect, alongside a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts which was announced on March 26.
- April 1, 4:30 a.m.: S&P Global will release (Final) U.K. March producer price index (PPI) data.
- Earnings (Estimates based on various data sources)
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins, to be managed via a “33/33/33 split among Karpatkey, Avantgarde & Myso, and Gauntlet.” They’re also voting on allocating 10 million ARB into “on-chain strategies designed to generate yield while safeguarding the principal.” Voting wraps up on April 3.
- Sky DAO is discussing increasing the Smart Burn Engine (SBE) rate following a recent executive proposal that “led to a significant uptick in net revenue.”
- March 31: A vote concerning a burn of 50 million CRO tokens is scheduled to conclude.
- March 31: GMX will host a Community Call that includes a Q&A session and showcases proposals from potential bridging and messaging partners for GMX in a multi-chain environment.
- Unlocks
- April 1: Sui (SUI) will unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply valued at $143.15 million.
- April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply valued at $12.85 million.
- April 2: Ethena (ENA) will unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply valued at $14.07 million.
- April 3: Wormhole (W) will unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply valued at $112.67 million.
- April 9: Movement (MOVE) will unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply valued at $20.23 million.
- Token Listings
- March 31: Kinto (K) will be listed on various exchanges including BingX and Kraken.
- March 31: Binance will delist several cryptocurrencies, including USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
Token Talk
(By a contributing author)
- Token launchpad Pump.fun’s trading platform PumpSwap, allowing tokens to be traded directly instead of via decentralized exchange Raydium, has accumulated $2.6 billion in trades since its March 20 launch, according to recent data.
- This figure positions it as the top protocol in the Solana ecosystem for fees collected over the past 24 hours, generating $3.29 million, well ahead of the second-place DEX aggregator Jupiter’s $2.47 million.
- As of the latest statistics, PumpSwap has attracted around 710,000 traders and facilitated more than 32.39 million swaps since its inception, securing a robust place in the Solana DEX market.
- However, the protocol is encountering challenges due to a slowdown in activity within the Solana ecosystem as the excitement around memecoin trading begins to diminish. Current data reveals that active addresses on Solana have decreased from a peak of 8.1 million to 4.2 million as of March 29.
Derivatives Positioning
- The overall open interest across all instruments has fallen to $101.3 billion, based on data from Laevitas, continuing its downward trajectory from the prior week.
- This decline points to a more cautious approach from market players as they brace for a tumultuous week that includes the quarter’s end, anticipated tariff announcements from President Trump, and the U.S. jobs report arriving Friday.
- In the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $229.3 million, with long positions making up 79% of this total. According to Binance’s BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, the largest immediate liquidation zone is at $81,200, accounting for $27.5 million.
- The subsequent key zones appear at $83,100 and $83,600, with liquidations estimated at $25.5 million and $24.7 million, respectively. Both thresholds align closely with the CME gap generated over the weekend.
- Among tokens with over $100 million in open interest, the greatest 24-hour increases were observed in EOS (+13.4%), PEPE (+8.99%), TON (+4.85%), and HYPE (+2.55%). The tokens that saw the most significant drops in open interest over the past 24 hours include SUI, TAO, and NEAR, decreasing by 10.8%, 8.53%, and 7.89%, respectively.
Market Movements:
- BTC is down 2.98% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $81,535.28 (24hrs: -1.27%)
- ETH is down 4.96% at $1,792.22 (24hrs: -1.3%)
- The crypto index is down 4.98% at 2,447.78 (24hrs: -3.36%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 basis points at 2.93%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0114% (4.1709% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 104.10
- Gold is up 1.3% at $3,126.50/oz
- Silver is up 0.95% at $34.97/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed down 4.05% at 35,617.56
- Hang Seng closed down 1.31% at 23,119.58
- FTSE is down 0.92% at 8,579.15
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.22% at 5,266.50
- DJIA closed on Friday down 1.69% at 41,583.90
- S&P 500 closed down 1.97% at 55,80.94
- Nasdaq closed down 2.7% at 17,322.99
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 1.6% at 24,759.20
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.52% at 2,429.43
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate dipped 1 basis point to 4.2%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.97% at 5,568.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.39% at 19,187.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.63% at 41,588.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 62.36 (0.24%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02196 (0.09%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 835 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $45.7
- Total Fees: 6.8 BTC / $589,342
- CME Futures Open Interest: 142,520 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 26.3 oz
- BTC vs. gold market cap: 7.45%
Technical Analysis
- XRP, which has been one of the stronger-performing major altcoins this year, is nearing a critical support zone between $1.95 and $2.05.
- This area has consistently functioned as a strong demand zone, with buyers stepping in multiple times over the last four months.
- Adding to this area’s importance, it coincides with the previous all-time high from 2021 and is further supported by the daily 200 exponential moving average, which is gradually moving towards this level.
- Failure to hold above this critical zone could lead to a more significant decline, considering this support level has reliably been maintained for several months.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed Friday at $289.41 (-10.84%), down 3.49% at $279.38 in premarket trading
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $173.93 (-7.77%), down 3.2% at $168.37
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.45 (-5.68%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.47 (-8.58%), down 3.69% at $12.01
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.41 (-4.63%), down 2.97% at $7.19
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.48 (+3.28%), down 3.74% at $7.20
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.19 (-8.29%), down 3.62% at $6.93
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.13 (-6.48%), down 2.51% at $12.80
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.86 (-0.16%), down 5.83% at $34.71
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $47.84 (-8.49%), unchanged in pre-market trading
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flow: -$93.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $36.33 billion
- Total BTC holdings: ~ 1,121 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $4.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
- Total ETH holdings: ~ 3.409 million.
Source: Various data providers
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- Both bitcoin and ether are poised to face their steepest quarterly declines since the second quarter of 2022.
While You Were Sleeping
In the Ether
