Bitcoin (BTC) experienced fluctuations during the Wall Street opening on April 1, with ongoing discussions about US trade tariffs creating a tense atmosphere in the markets. Data revealed that BTC/USD was navigating swiftly within its weekly trading range, hovering around $83,000. Following the market open, US stocks dipped slightly, while gold pulled back from its recent record highs of $3,149 per ounce. Concerns about a potential recession resurfaced, especially as US President Trump’s anticipated “Liberation Day” on April 2 approached, during which he pledged to introduce new trade tariffs.
Market indicators suggest that equity markets are factoring in a recession, with the S&P 500 declining by 2% since the Federal Reserve initiated interest rate cuts in September 2024. Analysts highlighted that while the Fed’s easing of monetary policy appears on hold for now, there is speculation about a resumption of rate cuts in June, according to information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
This forthcoming scenario could serve as a bullish trigger for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets, yet analysts pointed out that historical performance has not favored a strong rebound in equity markets under comparable conditions. Previous instances of rate cuts during recessions saw the S&P 500 drop by 6% within six months and 10% over a year, while the typical return following such pivots tends to be modest at 1% after six months.
Market analysts at QCP Capital expressed caution regarding the broader economic climate, influenced by macroeconomic factors. They noted that consumer confidence has fallen to 12-year lows and that equity markets were already experiencing a 4-5% decline for the week, characterizing the situation as troubling. There is a genuine concern that a sweeping and aggressive approach to tariffs could exacerbate recession fears, leading to a downturn in risk assets. Nevertheless, they suggested that political maneuvers might allow for adjustments, and a less severe implementation could provide temporary relief to the markets.
As BTC’s price action unfolded, traders remained eager for clearer momentum signals, especially with fundamental support at the $80,000 mark proving resilient. There was some upward movement observed, but analysts were cautious, indicating that it only constituted a three-wave pattern and resistance levels were still significant.
Another trader noted that BTC/USD was adhering to the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) at around $76,600, viewing it as a support level. They anticipated that Bitcoin could aim for $84,500 in its next upward movement after previously facing rejection there earlier in the day.
Furthermore, QCP highlighted encouraging activity from investors who were positioning themselves for potential higher prices in the near term, noting a bullish tilt as they observed buyers taking on upside exposure for price targets between $85,000 and $90,000 while hedging with downside risk around the $75,000 mark—suggesting a hopeful outlook for the start of the second quarter.
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