Recent research has drawn attention to the macroeconomic indicators and events occurring this week that might suggest a potential bottom for cryptocurrency prices between April and June.
The principal researcher noted on April 1, 2025, that this week will feature significant data releases and policy statements.
Key macroeconomic elements that market participants are eyeing include the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, tariff updates, and signals of U.S. economic growth, which will be reflected in manufacturing and employment statistics.
This week is being termed “Liberation Week,” as critical data is expected to emerge alongside possible political announcements. These factors, combined with the current market mood, could serve as indicators for the price trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market.
The researcher holds a similar perspective for other financial markets, noting that equities have faced challenges in recent weeks.
Trade tariffs are also influencing movements in crypto and risk assets. The recent announcement of a 25% tariff on automobiles, alongside the potential for reciprocal tariffs, raises important concerns. Nevertheless, indications of “constructive negotiations” and concessions among major global economies, including the Eurozone, Japan, and China, could yield positive outcomes.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s balancing act remains in focus, with Chair Jerome Powell set to address the public on Friday. Clarity regarding the likelihood of three interest rate cuts this year is anticipated by market participants.
Regarding what investors hope to glean from Powell’s upcoming remarks, the researcher commented:
“We look forward to Fed Chair Powell reaffirming the FOMC’s relatively dovish perspective, emphasizing that concerns over economic growth will take precedence, and that the Fed may be open to rate cuts even if core inflation hovers around 3% year-over-year.”
Concerning employment data set for release on Friday, projections for non-farm payroll numbers for March are around 139,000, with the six-month average at 191,000, and an unemployment rate of 4.3% would be welcomed by investors.
This information is crucial as growth worries, exacerbated by the recent 11% decline in the S&P 500, weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Moreover, technical indicators for BTC are not particularly reassuring, as the price has struggled to surpass the 200-day moving average. Altcoins are also in a sell-off phase, with many showing “dead crosses” that suggest a fragile market mood reliant on any positive news.
Overall, the outlook for this week appears favorable, supporting the analytics platform’s estimate of a 70% chance that cryptocurrency prices will hit a bottom between April and June.