Trump Tariff Threat Casts Shadow Over Buoyant BTC Price

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless stated otherwise)

Bitcoin is gaining traction, climbing more than 2% today to exceed $84,000, with memecoins propelling the market upwards, closely followed by tokens linked to artificial intelligence and gaming. In more traditional markets, gold has achieved yet another high, eclipsing $3,140, and futures for major U.S. stock indices indicate a favorable opening.

Former President Donald Trump has committed to a “very kind” yet assertive strategy regarding all trading partners as we approach Wednesday’s anticipated announcement on reciprocal tariffs.

Despite this, market activities suggest underlying nervousness likely fueled by uncertainty over tariffs. A bold move could heighten inflation expectations, potentially leading to a decrease in the prices of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

According to reports, the Treasury and other federal bodies may reveal their bitcoin holdings and other tokens on April 5, in compliance with a directive from March 11 that mandated such disclosures within 30 days of Trump’s March 6 executive order to establish a strategic cryptocurrency reserve.

However, caution is warranted based on some indicators. For instance, the one-year percentage change in bitcoin is nearing negative territory, as indicated by the crypto analytics firm Alphractal. “In the four instances this has occurred, three resulted in bearish trends, while one had no significant impact,” they reported.

Additionally, bitcoin’s demand as gauged by the 30-day flow, which considers the movement of coins into exchanges adjusted for net outflows, now shows its weakest values in over a year, according to data from CryptoQuant.

In terms of broader industry developments, the decentralized AI data liquidity network Vana launched the VRC-20 data token standard, aimed at ensuring fair and transparent data token transactions. “For data markets to function effectively, tokens need to be trustworthy, secure, and applicable. The VRC-20 sets a universal standard for data-backed tokens, promoting equitable trading,” Vana stated on X.

Elsewhere, the MOVE Index, which reflects the 30-day implied volatility for U.S. Treasury notes, is on the rise. A turbulent Treasury market frequently results in global financial tightening, which can dampen demand for risk assets. Remain vigilant!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • April 1: ONINO (ONI) is set for its mainnet launch.
  • April 2, 10:00 a.m.: A U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing will address several measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.
  • April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) is holding its mainnet launch.
  • April 5: Notable as the rumored birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
  • April 9, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing will evaluate how U.S. securities laws might adapt to incorporate digital assets. Livestream link.
• Macro
  • April 1, 9:00 a.m.: S&P Global will release March PMI data for Brazil.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 53
  • April 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global will release March PMI data for Canada.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 47.8
  • April 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global is set to distribute (Final) U.S. March PMI data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.8 vs. Prev. 52.7
  • April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor will publish the February JOLTs report (job openings, hires, and separations).
    • Job Openings Est. 7.63M vs. Prev. 7.74M
    • Job Quits Prev. 3.266M
  • April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release data on the U.S. manufacturing sector for March.
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 50.3
  • April 2: Announcement of Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs.
  • April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.
  • April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The 25% tariff on imported cars and select parts announced on March 26 will take effect.
  • April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will present a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.
  • April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell is scheduled to deliver a talk titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.
• Earnings (Estimates from FactSet data)

Token Events

• Governance votes & discussions
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins to be managed through a “33/33/33 division among Karpatkey, Avantgarde & Myso, and Gauntlet.” They are also voting on allocating 10 million ARB into “on-chain strategies intended to yield returns while safeguarding the principal.” Voting closes April 3.
  • Sky DAO is in talks about increasing the Smart Burn Engine (SBE) rate following a recent executive proposal that significantly boosted net revenue.
• Unlocks
  • April 1: Sui (SUI) will unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $143.15 million.
  • April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $12.85 million.
  • April 2: Ethena (ENA) will unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $14.07 million.
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) will unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $112.67 million.
  • April 9: Movement (MOVE) will unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.23 million.
• Token Listings
  • April 1: Bybit will delist CEL, MXM, ZEND, CTT, BONUS, LGX, PLT

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• A hacker involved in the multi-million dollar exploit of the zkLend DeFi protocol in February claimed they unknowingly transferred their stolen assets to a phishing site masquerading as the mixing service Tornado Cash.
• The hacker reportedly lost all 2,930 ETH taken from zkLend during this phishing incident, as detailed by Lookchain and blockchain analytics.
• After this, they sent an on-chain message through Etherscan to zkLend, expressing remorse for the “chaos and losses caused,” asserting they no longer possess the stolen funds, and recommending that zkLend redirect recovery efforts toward the attackers of the phishing site.

• Market analysts have voiced skepticism, suggesting that the claimed phishing site may have been set up by the hacker to divert attention away from their identifiable wallets to the address that supposedly ended up with the stolen assets.
• zkLend has responded by urging the hacker to return any remaining funds. The protocol is actively engaged in recovery efforts and has launched a “Recovery Portal” on March 5 to assist affected users, collaborating with security experts, centralized exchanges, and authorities to track the stolen assets.

Derivatives Positioning

• Open interest in futures related to TON, TRX, HYPE, SHIB, and XMR has seen an uptick over the last 24 hours, while other major coins, including BTC, experienced a decline in open positions.
• Perpetual funding rates for BTC, ETH, and most other prominent coins remain below an annualized 5%, suggesting a cautiously optimistic sentiment.
• Deribit’s BTC and ETH options continue to show a preference for short- and near-term puts, with bullish sentiment only emerging from July expirations.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 2.19% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $84,236.71 (24hrs: +2.47%)
• ETH is up 3.34% at $1,880.62 (24hrs: +3.34%)
• The CoinDesk 20 index is up 3.16% at 2,579.16 (24hrs: +5.15%)
• The Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has risen by 10 bps to 3.03%
• The BTC funding rate stands at 0.0032% (3.5150% annualized) on Binance

• The DXY remains unchanged at 104.12
• Gold has risen 1.18% to $3,159.80/oz
• Silver has gained 0.99% to $34.80/oz
• The Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 35,624.48
• The Hang Seng index closed up 0.38% at 23,206.84
• The FTSE closed up 0.9% at 8,660.19
• The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.2% at 5,311.30
• The DJIA closed up 1% on Monday at 42,001.76
• The S&P 500 closed up 0.55% at 5,611.85
• The Nasdaq closed down 0.14% at 17,299.29
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.64% at 24,917.50
• The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.96% at 2,406.22
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 bps to 4.185%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures remain unchanged at 5,656.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.22% at 19,482.25
• E-mini Dow Jones futures are down 0.12% at 42,207.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 62.18 (-0.21%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02236 (1.31%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 835.3 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $46.93
• Total Fees: 4.9 BTC / $406,290
• CME Futures Open Interest: 135,210 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 26.8 oz
• BTC vs. gold market cap: 7.6%

Technical Analysis

• BTC has surpassed the yellow trendline, confirming an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, suggesting an upward trajectory ahead.
• The 24-hour simple moving average is currently on the rise, reflecting renewed positive momentum.
• Prices could potentially advance towards the descending (white) trendline resistance, currently positioned at $87,200.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $288.27 (-0.39%), up 2.54% at $295.60 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $172.23 (-0.98%), up 1.78% to $175.30
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.17 (-7.78%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.50 (-7.78%), up 2.7% to $11.81
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.12 (-3.91%), up 1.69% at $7.22
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.24 (-3.21%), up 0.83% to $7.30
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $6.72 (-6.54%), up 3.13% to $6.93
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.77 (-2.74%), down 2.51% to $12.80
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.20 (-1.79%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.74 (-4.39%), up 2.25% at $46.77

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$60.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $36.27 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $6.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.43 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• Tron, BNB Chain, and Celo have emerged as the top three blockchains over the past year, recognized for the highest number of active stablecoin addresses.
• Ethereum, despite its stablecoin supply recently reaching a record high of over $132 billion, lags behind in active addresses.

While You Were Sleeping

• China Initiates Military Maneuvers Near Taiwan, Indicative that Island’s ‘Independence’ Could Spark Conflict (CNBC): China disclosed that its military exercises served as retribution for Taiwan’s leadership, mimicking a multidirectional encirclement and synchronized strikes on critical areas to showcase combat readiness.
• Ethereum Regains Dominance as Leading DEX Chain for the First Time Since September, Surpassing Solana: A bearish mood in the market, particularly within the memecoin sector, resulted in a substantial decrease in activity on Solana-based platforms such as Raydium and Pump.fun.
• Democrats File Lawsuit Against Trump Administration Over Election Executive Order (Reuters): The lawsuit contends that the requirement for voter citizenship verification and funding reductions for noncompliant states would unlawfully empower presidents to alter election regulations for their political advantage.
• Gold Reaches Record High as Trump’s Trade Threats Heighten Demand for Safe Investments (Bloomberg): Spot gold, which increased by 19% in the first quarter, rose to $3,149 as investors prepare for retaliation stemming from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan, expected to be detailed on Wednesday.
• RBA Maintains Rates Amid Concerns Over Trade War Impacts (The Wall Street Journal): Australia’s central bank cautioned that stricter U.S. tariffs and escalated geopolitical tensions could impede global growth by weakening consumer and business confidence and delaying spending.
• Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Holdings to Over 4K BTC, Acquiring an Additional 696 BTC: The Japanese company paid approximately $97,500 for each bitcoin, resulting in an average acquisition cost of about $86,500 per coin.

In the Ether