Bitcoin (BTC) achieved new highs for April during the Wall Street opening on April 2, as the market anticipated the upcoming US “Liberation Day.” Data from various market sources indicated that Bitcoin reached local peaks of $86,444 on Bitstamp, marking its strongest showing since March 28.
With the announcement of a significant new round of reciprocal trade tariffs by the US President looming, volatility was evident leading up to the announcement. This address was set to take place in the White House Rose Garden at 4 PM Eastern Time, followed by a press conference.
While US stock markets dipped slightly after the market opened, Bitcoin managed to recover, operating in a crucial zone marked by long-term trend lines. Various moving averages, including the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) that typically serves as a key support line in bull markets, highlighted this area.
Prominent trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs) were worth watching. In a recent post, he discussed the ongoing consolidation between these important indicators, highlighting that the declining nature of the 21-week EMA suggested lower prices. He indicated that this week, the green EMA is positioned at $87,650, and its downward trend could facilitate a potential breakout for Bitcoin.
Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin was attempting to escape from a prolonged downtrend on daily timeframes, stating, “Bitcoin is one Daily Candle Close above & retest of the Downtrend away from breaking out into a new technical uptrend.”
Last month, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) had escaped from its own downtrend, which had persisted since November 2024.
However, from a macro perspective, trading firm QCP Capital offered a more cautious outlook. They informed their Telegram channel subscribers that risk assets were likely to continue facing pressure following the tariffs announcement.
The sentiment in the crypto market remained largely muted, with Bitcoin trading without much conviction, while Ethereum held onto a support level near $1,800. Many cryptocurrencies were showing signs of fatigue, with several dropping around 90% year-to-date, and some losing more than 30% in just the past week.
QCP Capital suggested that, without a significant change in the macroeconomic landscape or a strong catalyst, a meaningful reversal in prices was unlikely. They noted that while lighter market positioning could support a gradual upward movement, they would not pursue any bullish trades until the overall macro situation improves. Historical tariff announcements in the first quarter had typically resulted in downward movements for Bitcoin’s price.
On a more optimistic note, Swissblock, an asset management firm, expressed that there were “no signs of an imminent collapse” for Bitcoin and raised the question of whether BTC would function as a hedge or follow traditional finance into a pullback. They described Bitcoin’s price behavior as being “at a crossroads” and considered the possibility of a drop back to the $76,000 mark in response to adverse news—a decrease of 11% from current prices.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and trading decision involves risks, and individuals should conduct their own research before making any choices.