Bitcoin Resilient as Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Unsettles Markets

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless otherwise noted)

Today marks President Trump’s so-called Liberation Day, and investors are anxiously anticipating news regarding U.S. tariffs. The atmosphere within the administration doesn’t seem particularly hopeful.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly under scrutiny, with hints that he may be blamed for endorsing excessively high tariffs if the nation enters a recession.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicates that a recession is probable, predicting a -3.7% contraction in U.S. real GDP for the first quarter. This is a significant downward update from earlier projections: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month prior, and -1.8% just two weeks back.

While Trump has yet to reveal the specific countries targeted by the tariffs, an announcement is expected after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.

In the meantime, Bitcoin (BTC) remains stable and is trading close to $85,000. U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, but futures suggest a slightly negative outlook for Wednesday.

Currently, bitcoin is 25% down from its all-time high of $109,000 reached on January 20. This positions it in the mid-range performance of the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks, with the following comparisons to their all-time peaks: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32%, and Tesla 50%.

Bitcoin’s strength is notable when looking back at previous cycles. In 2022, BTC plummeted 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, more than twice the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ), which dropped by 34%. This year, Bitcoin has decreased 30%, compared to a 16% decline for QQQ, making BTC’s drop 1.87 times more relative. This performance suggests that Bitcoin has grown more resilient over time, despite its volatility continuing to be a defining characteristic.

Much depends on the forthcoming tariff announcement and its impact on market reactions. Stay vigilant!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing on various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.
  • April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will launch its mainnet.
  • April 5: The suggested birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
  • April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about updating U.S. securities laws for digital assets. Livestream link.
• Macro:
  • April 2, 8:00 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics will publish February industrial production data.
    • Industrial Production MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0%
    • Industrial Production YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.4%
  • April 2, 4:00 p.m.: Announcement of the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs.
  • April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.
  • April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts enacted on March 26 becomes effective.
  • April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.
  • April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will present a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.
• Earnings: (Estimates based on market data)

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Yearn DAO is reviewing a revised proposal to support and fund “Bearn,” a new sub-DAO focused on DeFi products, including a yield-backed stablecoin and a BGT liquid locker. The proposal requests $200,000 for auditing costs and $1 million in locked liquidity, offering 5% of BEARN tokens to the Yearn Treasury in exchange.
  • Lido DAO is considering the re-endorsement of wstETH on Starknet as the canonical bridge endpoint following a migration from the previous token.
  • April 2, 11 p.m.: Axie Infinity will host Atia’s Legacy Town Hall discussing the project co-founders’ vision for their upcoming massive multiplayer online game.
  • April 2, 10 a.m.: The Graph will hold a token API talk.
  • April 3, 9 a.m.: SafePal, Wallet Connect, and Trader will present a monthly community livestream sharing monthly updates for the projects.
  • April 3, 2 p.m.: Arbitrum will present an X Spaces session on real-world assets on Arbitrum.
  • April 3, 12 p.m.: Seamless Protocol, Morpho Labs, and Gauntlet will host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
  • April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer will conduct a monthly community call addressing governance, funding, and the strategic direction of its on-chain treasury.
• Unlocks:
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) will unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply, valued at $104.38 million.
  • April 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.25% of its circulating supply, valued at $61.86 million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) will unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply, valued at $10.29 million.
  • April 9: Movement (MOVE) will unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply, valued at $20.10 million.
  • April 12: Aptos (APT) will unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply, valued at $59.94 million.
• Token Listings:
  • April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan Protocol (SPARTA), Derby Stars (DSRUN), Veloce (VEXT), BOB, and Kryptonite (SEILOR) will be delisted from Bybit.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• President Trump’s TRUMP memecoin is poised to unlock 40 million tokens — representing 20% of the circulating supply — on April 17, according to reports.
• Token unlocks typically result in short-term price declines due to an increased supply, evidenced by other cryptocurrencies like Aptos (APT), which dropped 26% in 30 days post a June 2024 unlock.
• A similar trend could occur with TRUMP, which is currently valued just above $10.
• Memecoins may experience higher selling pressure compared to utility projects, as they largely depend on sentiment, particularly linked to Trump’s political brand.
• However, if the president’s political clout continues to generate excitement — possibly amplified by developments such as Trump Media ETFs — the token may see buying activity after the unlock date.
• Investors looking to speculate on TRUMP should closely monitor the president’s public remarks regarding the memecoin, especially as the unlock date approaches.

Derivatives Positioning

• Despite market stability, bullish positions have not taken shape, leaving perpetual funding rates for major tokens like BTC and ETH hovering around a meager annualized rate of 1% to 3%.
• Most leading cryptocurrencies are showing negative cumulative volume deltas, suggesting a trend of net selling that raises questions about the sustainability of current market stability.
• In Deribit’s options market, BTC volatility smiles have shifted noticeably towards lower strike put options, indicating levels not observed since the regional banking crisis in March 2023, based on data from Block Scholes.
• Ether options are similarly reflecting put skews.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $85,063.12 (24hrs: +1.19%)
• ETH decreased by 1.75% at $1,879.84 (24hrs: +0.48%)
• CoinDesk 20 has dropped 0.56% at 2,559.88 (24hrs: -0.07%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has increased by 7 basis points to 3.1%
• BTC funding rate stands at 0.0027% (annualized 2.9685%) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.13% at 104.12
• Gold has increased by 1.4% to $3,162.70/oz
• Silver is up 1.79% at $34.77/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.28% at 35,725.87
• Hang Seng remained unchanged at 23,202.53
• FTSE is lower by 0.57% at 8,585.55
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.47% at 5,295.55
• DJIA finished unchanged on Tuesday at 41,989.96
• S&P 500 ended +0.38% at 5,633.07
• Nasdaq increased by 0.87% closing at 17,449.89
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.46% at 25,033.30
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.44% at 2,440.93
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury rate dipped 2 basis points to 4.16%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures decreased by 0.3% at 5,657.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures fell by 0.37% at 19,531.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures dropped by 0.24% at 42,138.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 62.68 (0.21%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02211 (-1.16%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 819 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $47.62
• Total Fees: 4.35 BTC / $366,246
• CME Futures Open Interest: 135,350 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 27.0 oz
• BTC vs. gold market cap: 7.66%

Technical Analysis

• The chart displays the total capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except for leading assets Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• The value is maintaining a bullish trendline ascending from the lows in August and November.
• A strong rebound from this trendline would indicate a renewal of the overall rally.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $306.02 (+6.16%), down 1.31% in pre-market at $302
• Coinbase Global (COIN): finished at $174.52 (+1.33%), declining 0.88% to $172.99 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): ended at C$16.33 (+7.65%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.84 (+2.96%), down 1.01% at $11.72 in pre-market
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): concluded at $7.54 (+5.9%), down 1.33% at $7.44 in pre-market
• Core Scientific (CORZ): ended at $8 (+10.5%), down 0.63% at $7.95 in pre-market
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.56 (+12.5%), down 1.46% at $7.45 in pre-market
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): settled at $13.67 (+7.05%), down 2.51% at $12.80 in pre-market
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): ended at $36.52 (+0.88%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% to $46.99 in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$157.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $36.11 billion
• Total BTC holdings approximately 1.12 million.

Spot ETH ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$3.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
• Total ETH holdings approximately 3.41 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart illustrates that technology stocks have lost favor over the last four weeks.
• This decline helps clarify the sluggishness in the crypto market.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether