The TRUMP memecoin, which is built on the Solana blockchain and was introduced by former U.S. President Donald Trump, has experienced a decline of 10.36% in the last 24 hours, ranking it as the seventh-largest loser in the cryptocurrency market by market cap.
This drop in price comes on the heels of a major announcement regarding new U.S. tariffs that have unsettled markets and led to a rise in concerns over an imminent recession.
Currently, TRUMP is trading at $9.29, down nearly 19.4% over the course of the week and 28.84% for the month. Its market capitalization stands at $1.86 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $834.75 million. The token has now fallen 87.63% from its all-time peak of $75.27, reached on January 19, 2025.
This downturn aligns with a notable shift in macroeconomic sentiment. In a prediction market, the likelihood of a U.S. recession this year spiked from 42% to 52% almost overnight in response to the tariff announcement.
This is particularly concerning as the blanket 10% tariff on all imports, combined with specific penalties for certain countries, could increase costs across vital industries, putting pressure on both consumers and corporate profitability.
Market signals and holder distribution influence sentiment
On-chain data reveals challenging conditions for TRUMP holders. According to metrics from IntoTheBlock, only 1% of addresses are currently profitable at the current price. The token shows a 0.47 correlation with Bitcoin, indicating some connection to broader market trends, though its recent price movements have diverged significantly.
Ownership is heavily concentrated, with 77% of the circulating supply in the hands of large addresses, many linked to entities associated with Trump, like CIC Digital LLC. There were no significant transactions exceeding $100,000 in the past week, and network growth was stagnant at 0.05%. Furthermore, Telegram membership saw a decline of 3.82% during the same timeframe. These indicators collectively suggest a “mostly bearish” outlook.
The distribution of holders indicates that 86% have possessed the token for one to twelve months, while only 13% are long-term holders. This prevalence of medium-term speculative holdings enhances the risk of ongoing selling pressure amid prevailing uncertainty.
The dynamics of memecoins amidst political fluctuations
Launched in early 2025 amidst a boom in politically themed digital currencies, the Trump memecoin rapidly achieved a $24 billion market valuation on its first trading day. This initial surge was fueled by Trump’s direct promotion on social media and the association with the “Make America Great Again” campaign, which energized both speculative investors and his supporters.
However, the use-case for the token remains ambiguous aside from its status as a political meme and fundraising mechanism. The absence of clear governance structures and worries over centralized ownership have fostered skepticism in segments of the crypto community.
The recent tariff announcement has added further turbulence to a market already grappling with macroeconomic challenges. While major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have also faced difficulties, memecoins and assets with lower liquidity have seen even sharper downturns as risk premiums expand.
Data from IntoTheBlock indicates that TRUMP’s transaction demographics are somewhat skewed toward the West, with 53% of the trading activity originating from Western jurisdictions. Consequently, 47% of trading in this official U.S. President’s memecoin is taking place outside the country, particularly in Eastern territories.
As the implementation of tariff policies unfolds, additional market adjustments may be anticipated across politically sensitive assets. For the moment, TRUMP’s decline is reflective of a broader risk-averse stance among investors as they consider both the potential inflationary effects of trade policy changes and the likelihood of economic contraction in the coming quarters.
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