The price of Bitcoin (BTC) might approach the $100,000 mark sooner than investors anticipate if the early signs of its separation from the US stock market and gold persist.
Image source: TradingView
Shifts in the “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” dynamic
Bitcoin has disregarded the market turmoil stemming from US President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements.
Initially, BTC fell over 3% to around $82,500, only to bounce back approximately 4.5% and surpass $84,700. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 tumbled 10.65% this week, and gold—after reaching a peak of $3,167 on April 3—has decreased by 4.8%.
BTC/USD against gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingView
This new divergence strengthens the narrative that gold leads Bitcoin, drawing from past price trends from late 2018 to mid-2019 to suggest a robust recovery toward $100,000.
Gold’s gradual climb, nearly 15% by mid-2019, contrasted with Bitcoin’s stagnation at that time. Shortly after, Bitcoin surged over 170% in early 2019, followed by another 344% surge by late 2020.
BTC/USD against XAU/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView
“Reaching $100,000 would indicate a transition from gold to Bitcoin,” noted a market analyst, adding:
“As observed in prior cycles, this would pave the way for Bitcoin to significantly outperform gold and other assets.
This perspective aligns with insights from a prominent founder, who suggested in a March analysis that Bitcoin could grow significantly more than gold, similar to past trends.
Image source: TradingView
Concerning Bitcoin-to-gold ratio signals a possible bull trap
Bitcoin might be poised for a decline toward $65,000, influenced by a bearish fractal forming in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.
This BTC/XAU ratio is showcasing a familiar pattern reminiscent of 2021. The breakdown followed a significant support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.
BTC/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingView
The BTC/XAU is repeating this fractal and is currently re-testing the critical red 50-EMA as a support level.
In the past cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA before breaking lower, ultimately encountering support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats itself, the BTC/XAU may be headed for a deeper correction, especially if macroeconomic conditions worsen.
Interestingly, these breakdown phases have historically aligned with declines in Bitcoin’s dollar value, as illustrated below.
BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView
If the fractal recurs, Bitcoin’s initial downside target may be its 50-2W EMA, around the $65,000 range, with additional declines potentially pushing it below $20,000, in line with the 200-2W EMA.
A rebound from the BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA, conversely, could negate the bearish fractal.
A US recession could dampen Bitcoin’s bullish prospects
From a fundamental viewpoint, Bitcoin’s price trajectory seems to lean toward the downside.
Investor apprehension is rising that Trump’s global tariff conflict could escalate into a full-blown trade war, potentially prompting a US recession. Typically, risk assets like Bitcoin do not perform well during economic downturns.
Additionally, on April 4, the Federal Reserve Chair indicated skepticism about imminent interest rate cuts, underscoring that progress on inflation is inconsistent. This hints at a sustained high-rate environment that could further hinder Bitcoin’s upward movement.
Yet, many bond traders anticipate three consecutive rate cuts leading up to the Fed’s September meeting, according to recent market data.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading decisions involve risk, and readers should conduct their own due diligence prior to making any decisions.