CME’s bitcoin futures, seen as a gauge of institutional participation, experienced a significant drop on Monday, signaling a shift towards bearish sentiment after President Trump declared a lack of optimism regarding a trade agreement with China.
The futures contract set to expire on the last Friday of April opened at $79,590, reflecting a 5.6% decline from Friday’s closing price of $84,250, before swiftly falling to $76,800, according to data from CoinDesk.
These losses came amid a 900-point decline in Dow futures, a nosedive in Chinese stocks, and a dip in the Japanese stock market with lower circuit breakers activated, as JPMorgan, S&P Global, and Goldman Sachs raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession this year.
While speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump expressed his intention to address the trade deficit with China, stating, “And unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal.”
He also mentioned that global leaders are eager to strike a deal. Recently, Trump announced extensive tariffs affecting 180 countries, raising the total tariff on China to 54%. Following this announcement, financial markets have struggled, which Trump believes is a necessary measure to address the ongoing issues.
“I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” Trump commented.
### Open Interest Declines on CME
Open interest in CME futures reached its peak of 281.57 BTC in December but has since fallen to 140.5K, marking the lowest level since August 2024, as indicated by data. This downtrend suggests that funds are leaving the digital asset sector, potentially in anticipation of a larger price drop.
Conversely, global futures and perpetual futures open interest, excluding CME, rose from around 400K BTC to 520 BTC over the last four weeks.
An increase in open interest, coupled with a price decline, is commonly viewed as a confirmation of a bearish trend, implying that traders are establishing short positions in a declining market.