Bitcoin weathers global tariff storm, suggesting safe-haven potential

Bitcoin (BTC) is displaying unexpected strength amid one of the most chaotic macroeconomic landscapes seen in recent memory, as aggressive US tariffs have unsettled global markets and led to a retreat in risk assets.

Even with a 19.1% decline from its January peaks, Bitcoin has proven to be more resilient than many significant altcoins and equities, managing to rebound briefly on days when traditional markets faced downturns, according to a report released on April 7.

As of the latest updates, Bitcoin was valued at $79,850, reflecting a 2.4% rise over the previous 24 hours.

The report highlighted that long-term holders are still accumulating BTC, suggesting that Bitcoin has the potential to reclaim its status as a safe haven amid economic turmoil.

The report stated:

“Bitcoin’s recent behavior indicates a significant change — while it remains reactive to macroeconomic shocks, it is beginning to decouple from other risk assets during periods of intense stress.”

This shift comes as the US initiates a global tariff escalation not seen since the 1930s. Following his return to office in January, President Trump implemented extensive import tariffs on April 5.

The action resulted in a 10% blanket tariff affecting nearly every country globally, alongside steep individual country rates, such as 54% on China, 20% on the EU, and 46% on Vietnam.

In response, China and Canada have already retaliated, and further global reactions are anticipated. Additionally, over 50 countries have agreed to concessions.

Bitcoin remains steady amid stagflation concerns and Fed uncertainty

While the overall cryptocurrency market has seen a decline of over $1 trillion — a 25.9% drop — Bitcoin has exhibited less volatility compared to high-beta sectors such as meme coins and AI-linked tokens, which have dropped more than 50%. Ethereum (ETH), typically more susceptible to risk-off movements, has decreased by over 40%.

Data indicates that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with equities has risen from –0.32 in February to 0.47 in March, mirroring its connection with general market sentiment during the rise in tariffs.

Conversely, its previously neutral correlation with gold has decreased to –0.22, implying that Bitcoin may be repositioning itself differently from traditional risk or safe-haven assets.

Crucially, metrics concerning long-term supply remain strong. Bitcoin retained by long-term investors continues to rise, indicating strong conviction among holders despite spikes in volatility. Some analysts view this as a sign that BTC could recover more quickly than other digital assets once macro conditions stabilize.

The macro environment is increasingly complex. The average US tariff rate now hovers around 19%, a steep climb from just 2.5% last year—the most significant increase since the Great Depression. Inflation expectations are rising, with consumer surveys nearing 5%, even as global growth forecasts become weaker.

This has posed a stagflation threat that complicates central bank strategies. The Federal Reserve, which once focused solely on reducing inflation, is now projected to cut interest rates up to four times this year, according to the Fed funding futures market.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that the recent tariffs are “larger than anticipated” and could destabilize both price stability and growth.

Decoupling or dependence?

Bitcoin’s performance in this environment may depend on two critical factors: monetary policy and narrative momentum.

If the Fed shifts to easing while inflation remains high, BTC could benefit from renewed liquidity and its role as a non-sovereign, “hard money” alternative.

It was noted that Bitcoin’s long-term correlation with equities has remained modest, averaging 0.32 since 2020, and just 0.12 with gold. Historical instances, such as the March 2023 banking crisis, demonstrated BTC’s ability to decouple and rise amidst broader instability.

The report indicated:

“If markets stabilize and Bitcoin reestablishes itself as an inflation hedge, it may attract new capital as traditional portfolios look for diversification.”

Currently, the crypto market remains closely linked to macroeconomic developments — with tariffs, inflation statistics, and signals from central banks driving market sentiment. However, Bitcoin’s relative strength during this turbulent period could provide insight into the role it might occupy in a fragmented, protectionist global economy.

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