(All times in ET unless noted otherwise)
One aspect that markets find most distressing is uncertainty, and currently, it is emanating from various regions worldwide, largely driven by Trump’s tariffs.
Markets experienced a slight rebound on Tuesday after a severe plunge on Monday across Asia and Europe; however, it felt more like a relief rally rather than a genuine recovery. The tension is primarily between the U.S. and China, with both sides steadfastly refusing to yield—even if it brings about extended uncertainty and turmoil for global markets.
As markets momentarily paused from the chaos, crypto critics were quick to highlight how bitcoin’s (BTC) narrative as a safe haven—which appeared bolstered by its strength late last week—disintegrated swiftly on Monday when its price plummeted to $75,000.
While that viewpoint holds some merit, expecting bitcoin to remain immune to the upheaval was naively optimistic. Historically, during crises, investors tend to rush to cash, often liquidating even conventional safe-haven investments like gold. Monday proved to be no different. Nevertheless, bitcoin has exhibited lower beta compared to U.S. equities since the tariff announcement.
In a broader context, bitcoin has been holding up relatively well. The Nasdaq has declined over 22% from its record peak, whereas bitcoin’s decrease stands at 28%. In previous downturns—like the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024 or the COVID crash in March 2020—bitcoin endured much more severe relative losses.
Since the market closure in New York on Wednesday, BTC has dropped 8.4%, yet it has outperformed the S&P 500, which fell 10%, and the Nasdaq’s 11% drop.
“What’s significant is that BTC’s beta relative to broader risk assets seems considerably lower during this sell-off compared to prior instances. This indicates a growing acknowledgment of bitcoin’s potential role as a non-sovereign store of value amid economic strain,” said David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, in an email.
Monday’s trading session also witnessed a brief “short-term frenzy” triggered by false reports about a 90-day tariff delay. The markets surged only to swiftly tumble back as the rumors were debunked. Stay vigilant!
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- Macro
- April 9, 12:01 a.m.: Higher individualized tariffs on imports from top U.S. trade deficit nations take effect.
- April 9, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) releases March consumer price inflation data.
- Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.48%
- Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.65%
- Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
- Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.77%
- April 9, 12:01 p.m.: China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports take effect.
- April 9, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases minutes from the FOMC meeting held March 18-19.
- April 9, 9:30 p.m.: China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
- Inflation Rate MoM Prev. -0.2%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 0% vs. Prev. -0.7%
- PPI YoY Est. -2.3% vs. Prev. -2.2%
- April 10, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing regarding the nomination of Michelle Bowman as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision.
- April 14: The President of El Salvador will visit the White House for an official working meeting.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Unlocks
- April 8: Tensor (TNSR) to release 35.96% of its circulating supply valued at $14.44 million.
- April 9: Movement (MOVE) to release 2.04% of its circulating supply valued at $15.84 million.
- April 12: Aptos (APT) to release 1.87% of its circulating supply valued at $51.01 million.
- April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) to release 5.68% of its circulating supply valued at $21.18 million.
- April 15: Starknet (STRK) to release 4.37% of its circulating supply valued at $15.79 million.
- April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to release 2.01% of its circulating supply valued at $25.22 million.
- Token Listings
Conferences
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- Fartcoin (FART) climbed 30% to extend month-to-date gains to over 130%.
- The comically named token extended its multi-day rally while the broader crypto market recovered, showcasing persistent buying interest from traders.
- Speculators are monitoring the ongoing resilience of memecoins, especially when they seem to defy general market trends, as these tokens often experience significant boosts following market sell-offs. This can create potential profit opportunities for short-term traders, with many eyeing a bullish movement for the token in the upcoming weeks.
- FART has become somewhat emblematic among certain crypto enthusiasts, representing an audacious mockery against dire financial projections. It may lack concrete value but possesses a dedicated following—possibly driving demand even as the market fluctuates.
Derivatives Positioning
- Bitcoin CME futures basis remains robust above an annualized 5% amidst macroeconomic turbulence.
- However, CME options skew indicates a preference for downside protection, or puts.
- Together, these indicators suggest a cautious sentiment without signaling panic, according to Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks.
- On Deribit, the put bias for BTC and ETH has eased, yet BTC’s implied volatility term structure persists in backwardation, hinting at ongoing apprehensions for drastic price fluctuations in the near term.
- The $70K put option is now the most favored strike, with a notional open interest of $957 million. This marks a complete turnaround from the earlier preferences for $100K-$120K call options seen at the start of the year.
- Most of the top 25 cryptocurrencies, with the exception of TRX, HBAR, LINK, and DOT, have experienced a decline in perpetual futures open interest over the past 24 hours.
Market Movements
- BTC is stable from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $78,894.34 (24hrs: +2.61%)
- ETH is down 0.32% at $1,514.40 (24hrs: +5.22%)
- CoinDesk 20 index is up 0.8% at 2,268.01 (24hrs: +4.76%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 77 basis points at 3.69%
- BTC funding rate sits at 0.0049% (5.3118% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains stable at 103.32
- Gold is up 2.19% at $3015.9/oz
- Silver is up 1.9% at $30.07/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed +6.03% at 33,012.58
- Hang Seng closed +1.51% at 20,127.68
- FTSE gained 2.1% at 7,863.79
- Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.36% to 4,719.66
- DJIA closed on Monday -0.91% at 37,965.60
- S&P 500 concluded -0.23% at 5,062.25
- Nasdaq closed +0.1% at 15,603.26
- S&P/TSX Composite Index finished -1.44% at 22,859.50
- S&P 40 Latin America concluded -2.94% at 2,227.14
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate decreased 2 basis points to 4.16%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures dropped 1.58% to 5,178.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures gained 1.35% to 17,799.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures increased 2% to 38,930.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 63.46 (-0.11%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01980 (0.97%)
- Hashrate (7-day moving average): 902 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $40.50
- Total Fees: 6.59BTC / $510,645
- CME Futures Open Interest: 137,695 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 26.2 oz
- BTC market cap relative to gold: 7.43%
Technical Analysis
- The chart illustrates monthly trends in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield since the 1980s.
- While the crypto community yearns for a return to the zero-yield period, this chart indicates otherwise, showcasing a long-term upward shift in interest rates.
- This shift is highlighted by the key 50-, 100-, and 200-month simple moving averages, which align bullishly—stacked one above the other for the first time since the 1980s.
- Increased rates may become the new normal.
Crypto Equities
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $268.14 (-8.67%), up 1.47% at $272.09 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $157.28 (-2.04%), up 1.72% to $159.98
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$12.34 (-8.8%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.26 (-0.35%), up 2.04% to $11.49
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.11 (-0.42%), up 0.28% to $7.13
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.02 (-2.23%), up 1.85% to $7.15
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.43 (+1.5%), up 0.67% to $7.48
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.41 (+0.73%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.15 (0.89%), down 1.02% to $33.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $41.84 (-6.25%), down 5.16% to $39.68
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flow: -$103.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $36.07 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million.
Spot ETH ETFs:
- Daily net flow: $0.0
- Cumulative net flows: $2.38 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.37 million.
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- The chart displays daily net flows of BTC from wallets associated with miners.
- On Monday, these wallets experienced a cumulative net outflow of 1,627 BTC, marking the highest outflow since December 24.
- Recent reports indicate that the tariffs have severely disrupted the bitcoin mining sector.