In early January, following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement, polls indicated a potential shift in Canada’s political landscape if an election were to occur.
Now, the Liberal Party seems poised for an unusual fourth term under the leadership of Mark Carney, the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. Predictions suggest Carney has a 74% likelihood of securing the position of prime minister, according to a prediction market.
Earlier this year, a CBC poll tracker forecasted that the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, might achieve a record by winning as many as 244 of the 338 seats in Canada’s Parliament.
While Trudeau’s Liberals appeared to be struggling, having dropped to third place—a remarkable decline for a party once considered among Canada’s favorites—Quebec’s Bloc Québécois took the role of official opposition. However, since then, the political environment has shifted significantly.
On the day Trudeau announced his departure from politics, many polls reflected a government marked by what some commentators described as a “legacy of chaos and disaster.”
Prior to Trudeau’s resignation, the Conservative party had already entered campaign mode, capitalizing on rising inflation and the affordability crisis faced by many Canadians as a result of the post-Covid landscape, ultimately translating into favorable poll numbers.
Voter sentiment indicated a lack of enthusiasm for the Liberal government’s proposals on carbon taxes, while Trudeau’s initiatives regarding housing affordability were perceived as inadequate to address the deep-rooted issues.
Without Trudeau in the picture, Poilievre’s effectiveness and appeal appear diminished. Although the Conservatives have a wealth of policies, the narrative up until then heavily revolved around Trudeau, limiting their messaging to a single key point. As a result, Conservative poll numbers began to decline.
Then, Donald Trump entered the conversation, introducing a trade war with the U.S.—an inconceivable development just a year prior.
Carney quickly emerged as the successor to Trudeau as the Liberal leader and temporarily took on the role of prime minister. Under his leadership, the Liberals have surged ahead in popularity nationwide. Carney, with his extensive experience in the banking sector, has been viewed as more trustworthy to manage pressing economic issues compared to a career politician.
His impressive credentials on Bay Street, Wall Street, and within international central banks resonated with voters, setting him on a path to potentially become Canada’s twenty-fourth prime minister.
The Canadian election contract is just one of many on the prediction platform, which spans various topics from cryptocurrency trends to the anticipated launch date of Grand Theft Auto VI.
Despite prominent figures like Poilievre championing cryptocurrency as part of their campaign strategy, it hasn’t taken center stage in the election discourse. This could be attributed to the fact that Canadian corporations are restricted from financially supporting political campaigns as they are in the U.S.—with about $120 million from crypto companies in the last election cycle accounting for a significant portion of corporate donations.
Poilievre may feel that focusing on crypto amidst broader economic uncertainties and cross-border challenges could be counterproductive. As such, industry advocates appear to be waiting until after the election to press for their interests, believing that promoting crypto might be tone-deaf in the current climate.
Whichever candidate prevails will need to collaborate closely with Canada’s provinces, which regulate securities—a likely reason for the moderate discussion of crypto in Parliament. Any substantial progress regarding crypto legislation would probably come from provincial authorities.
This topic will be a key focus at the upcoming Consensus 2025 event in Toronto, scheduled for May 14-16.