Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a bullish breakout, coinciding with modest upward movement in the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $83,000, driving other cryptocurrencies higher, although it still faced pressure from a downturn in broader risk assets on April 11.
Data indicated that BTC reached a peak of $83,200 across various major exchanges, but these intraday gains were achieved as stock markets fluctuated due to ongoing tariff worries.
Despite the current market dynamics showing an apparent disconnect, especially with a decline in the dollar index, the seasoned trader remains optimistic about BTC. He expressed his thoughts via X on April 11, highlighting the rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.
With the US10YR surpassing 4.5%, the former CEO of BitMEX hinted at a potential policy response from the government in Washington.
As per Hayes, this reaction could occur as early as the weekend—which he believes would position Bitcoin in a favorable “up only mode.”
Tariffs continue to be a significant concern for investors, particularly with the ongoing trade conflict between China and the U.S. The Chinese government has recently unveiled retaliatory tariffs as high as 125% on U.S. imports, a response to the White House’s own 145% tariff increases.
Analyst Scott Melker shared his perspective via X, emphasizing that yields and the situation with China are the primary factors driving the downturn in risk assets.
“Everything else is just details,” he remarked.
Hayes’ predictions and Melker’s insights resonate with the views of other analysts throughout the market. Many perceive the soaring yields as an indication that “something is amiss.” Even notable U.S. inflation data seemed to garner little attention from the markets.
Earlier that day, the CEO of BlackRock remarked to a financial news outlet that the U.S. is “very close” to being in a recession, if not already experiencing one.
“I think you’re going to see a general slowdown until there’s more certainty. With a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs, longer and more significant uncertainty lies ahead,” he added.
As of 12:20 ET on April 11, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $82,346.