An important Bitcoin (BTC) metric has indicated a possible shift in its dynamics, as the long-term holder realized cap (LTH Realized Cap) exceeded $18 billion for the first time since September 2024. Recent data revealed that this group has been actively accumulating, mirroring trends observed during previous BTC market bottoms in Q3 2024.
The LTH realized cap gauges the BTC cost basis for investors who have held their assets for 155 days or longer. An uptick in this metric suggests that long-term holders are entering an accumulation phase, characterized by a bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin LTH net position realized cap
The chart demonstrates that spikes in this metric have historically preceded bullish rallies. Notably, the LTH realized cap reached the $18 billion mark on September 8, 2024, leading to a staggering 100% return in Bitcoin over the following months.
Another significant factor aligning the current market conditions with those of September 2024 is the pronounced decline in open interest. BTC’s open interest hit an all-time high of $39 billion in July but decreased by 25% by September. Similarly, there was a 28% drop in Bitcoin’s open interest from December 18 to April 8.
Bitcoin open interest
The simultaneous rise in the LTH Realized Cap along with a leverage wipeout strongly indicates that a Bitcoin price bottom is likely. However, open interest has surged nearly 10% in the last 24 hours, suggesting the price trend post-spike may provide clearer directional insight in the upcoming days.
Bitcoin establishes support at $79K
Following the formation of a new yearly low at $74,500 between April 7 and April 9, BTC prices have surged nearly 10% over the last three days. Data indicates that Bitcoin has solidified support around the $79,000 mark. It was noted in a recent update that,
“Analyzing Cost Basis Distribution, Bitcoin has formed significant support at $79K, with approximately 40K BTC accumulated at that level. It has also effectively moved through the $82.08K cluster, accumulating around 51K BTC.”
Bitcoin heatmap based on cost basis distribution
The heatmap from April 6 to April 11 illustrates how supply distribution reveals investor accumulation trends. This followed Bitcoin’s rally beyond $81,000, stimulated by a 2.4% US CPI rate and a 90-day tariff pause from President Trump, with market sentiment leaning towards cautious optimism for a potential relief rally.
In a similar vein, an anonymous technical analyst pointed out a descending trendline for Bitcoin, with the price testing a possible bullish breakout. The analyst commented,
“I must admit, that looks very promising for BTC.”
Bitcoin 1-day chart analysis
Note: Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risks; readers should carry out their own research before making any financial decisions.