On April 8, Bitcoin’s net unrealized loss (NUL) ratio surged to 0.0578, marking the peak not seen since November 2023. Simultaneously, the net unrealized profit/loss ratio fell to 0.4253 on the same day, reaching its lowest point since September 2024.
This shift followed Bitcoin’s decline to $76,000, resulting from a sharp and aggressive pullback from the mid-$80,000 range where it had been trading for several weeks.
NUL and its counterpart, NUPL, serve as key indicators for evaluating the sentiment of Bitcoin holders. These metrics are calculated based on the difference between Bitcoin’s current market price and the realized price — the average price at which all coins were last transacted on-chain.
NUPL = (Market Cap – Realized Cap) / Market Cap NUL = (Realized Cap – Market Cap) / Market Cap
NUPL represents the ratio of unrealized profits in the network. A high NUPL indicates that most coins are yielding gains, while a low or negative NUPL signals widespread losses. Conversely, NUL assesses unrealized losses.
A high NUL suggests that numerous coins are being held below their purchase price, typically a sign of capitulation or fear. Collectively, these indicators help pinpoint market cycles, shifts in sentiment, and potential turning points that precede significant movements.
A NUL of 0.0578 indicates that 5.78% of Bitcoin’s market cap is currently at an unrealized loss. This suggests that a substantial number of market participants, particularly those who entered near Bitcoin’s peak in March, are now holding BTC at a loss. This represents a notable psychological shift, signaling the emergence of fear among short-term holders and a marked decrease in the bullish sentiment that characterized the start of the year.
For context, the lowest NUL reading prior to 2025 was recorded on December 15, 2024, when it fell to 0.0. On that day, Bitcoin was trading above $104,000, with nearly all holders in a profit position. Around the same time, NUPL reached a peak of 0.6349, a level historically linked to euphoric sentiment and overheated market conditions. These metrics reflected a mature bull phase, typically followed by distribution and increased volatility.
The shift from those extreme highs to the current mid-range suggests a market experiencing correction rather than outright collapse. NUPL continues to remain above 0.4, indicating that most investors are still profiting, even though a rising NUL highlights that losses are growing among recent entrants, particularly those who bought into strength toward the end of the cycle.
First, the elevated NUL and declining NUPL in April signify a shift in market sentiment from a risk-on approach to a more cautious and reactive stance. Profit margins are tightening, and an increasing percentage of coins have fallen into loss, indicating that short-term holders are under considerable strain as the market recalibrates following a rally.
Second, the relatively modest rise in NUL, still under 0.1, suggests that this is not a widespread capitulation event. Historically, NUL levels exceeding 0.1 are linked to significant bear markets and systemic stress. The current 0.0578 suggests a correction characterized by localized losses, primarily affecting recent buyers.
Third, NUPL’s strength above 0.4 reinforces the idea that long-term holders remain largely in profit and unaffected. These holders typically act as a stabilizing influence during periods of volatility, and their confidence often lays the groundwork for new accumulation phases.
Fourth, Bitcoin’s price movement shows that while it has significantly decreased from its peak, it has remained within a historically elevated range above $76,000 and up to $85,000 in April. This further supports the view that the downturn was technical rather than structural, with little evidence of panic selling or systemic deleveraging.
The findings regarding NUPL and NUL clearly depict a market in transition. The recent recovery in both metrics by April 10 indicates that the broader market structure is still intact, with most holders maintaining their profit status.
This scenario resembles past periods where the market undergoes consolidation before potentially setting the stage for a new upswing, assuming macro conditions remain favorable.