Recent on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be nearing a bullish trend reversal as an important market indicator begins to shift.
In a post on April 13, an analyst highlighted that the gap between Bitcoin’s (BTC) futures price and its spot price on Binance is starting to decrease. This difference, referred to as the perpetual-spot gap, reflects the disparity between what traders are paying for futures contracts and the actual market price of Bitcoin.
Given the current negative status of this gap, participants in the futures market may be exercising caution or taking profits after Bitcoin’s previous rise to nearly $90,000. However, the narrowing gap could suggest that selling pressure is diminishing. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has often surged significantly when this gap turned positive, as seen in 2020 and early 2024.
Despite Bitcoin experiencing a drop of over 22% from its all-time high of $108,786 in January, signals of on-chain accumulation remain robust. According to a post on April 11, approximately 40,000 BTC have been acquired near the $79,000 mark, while another 51,000 BTC were accumulated around the $82,080 level. Should prices fall again, these thresholds could act as support.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is priced around $84,746, having rebounded from a weekly low of $74,773, and is up 7% over the past week. Recently, Bitcoin closed a daily candle above a significant long-term downtrend, prompting prominent market analyst Rekt Capital to speculate that a breakout might be on the horizon. However, they cautioned that a successful retest is necessary to confirm the shift in trend.
In addition, Bitcoin’s dominance – the measure of its share within the broader cryptocurrency market – stands at 63%, according to TradingView data. This indicates that a substantial amount of market capital is still invested in Bitcoin, suggesting that investors are confident in its relative stability amid market fluctuations. If buying activity persists and the futures gap turns positive, analysts believe Bitcoin might be set for another rally.